2025 Fantasy Baseball: Tyler Stephenson Profile, Preview, Predictions
In this story:
After falling short of expectations in 2023, Tyler Stephenson set career highs in most offensive categories last year. His production has a limited ceiling, making him only a steady-catching option.
Tyler Stephenson's home run extends his career-high hit streak to 13 games pic.twitter.com/22YGyaPOLO
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) August 29, 2024
1B – Tyler Stephenson, CIN (ADP – 144.9)
With so many catchers in 2023 playing well, Stephenson was a player who underperformed his draft value despite setting career highs in at-bats (465), runs (59), home runs (13), and RBIs (56). His bat didn’t fire in any month of the season while being a better player vs. lefties (.284 with four home runs and 18 RBIs over 127 at-bats).
Stephenson played much better last year, highlighted by setting a new top in runs (69), home runs (19), and RBIs (66). He finished with 57 fewer RBI chances (287) than in 2023 (344) while delivering a middle-of-the-order RBI rate (17). After posting waiver wire stats over the first three months (.240/29/6/24/1 over 204 at-bats), his bat came alive in July and August (.288 with 33 runs, 12 home runs, and 31 RBIs over 170 at-bats), pushing fantasy teams up the standings.
His average hit rate (1.720) was much higher than his previous three seasons (1.510, 1.509, and 1.558), hinting at 25+ home runs if given 500+ at-bats. Stephenson improved his fly-ball rate (33.5 – 28.7 in 2023 and 29.5 in his career) at the expense of line drives (19.0% - 22.9% in his career). His exit velocity (90.2 mph) and hard-hit rate (43.9) were the best of his career. He has an above-league-average walk rate (9.3) while doing a nice job lowering his strikeout rate (22.7 – 26.0 over the previous two seasons).
Fantasy Outlook: The change in the Reds starting lineup led to only nine games last season at DH, compared to 43 in 2023. In addition, Cincinnati didn’t give any playing time at first base – 32 games from 2021 to 2023) despite losing their expected starting first baseman earlier in the year. Think steady catcher production (60/15/60) at the draft table while understanding his bat can be much better in 2025. The key to more production is more at-bats, and the Reds hitting him fourth and fifth in the batting order. Stephenson offers no help in speed.
RANKINGS
Top 5 Catchers | Catchers 6-10 | Catchers 11-15
Top 5 First Basemen | First Basemen 6-10 | First Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Second Basemen | Second Basemen 6-10 | Second Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Shortstops | Shortstops 6-10 | Shortstops 11-15
Top 5 Third Basemen | Third Basemen 6-10 | Third Basemen 11-15
With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
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