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Journalism is the Heavy Favorite at the Kentucky Derby: Which Longshot Can Outrun Him?

Major longshots have won the Kentucky Derby three years in a row. Will a favorite break the streak in 2025 or will another challenger get in the winner's circle.
Frank Taddeo|
Journalism Wins the 2025 Santa Anita Derby
Journalism Wins the 2025 Santa Anita Derby | Benoit Photo

If you have wagered on the post-time betting favorite in the last six Kentucky Derby’s, it is highly likely that your bankroll has taken a major hit. 

Since 2019, post-time favorites: (2024, Fierceness, 5/2, finished 15th;  2023, Tapit Trice 9/2, finished 7th; 2022, Epicenter 4-1, finished 2nd; 2021, Essential Quality, 2-1, finished 3rd; 2020: Tiz the Law, 3/5, finished 2nd; 2019, Improbable, 4-1, finished 4th) - have all been defeated. 

Identifying a longshot who can crash the tote board can lead to financial bliss in wagering on the Run for the Roses. 

In this feature we will take a look at the three morning-line longshots who check in just behind the top four betting choices of Journalism, Sovereignty, and Sandman.

Rodriguez 12-1

POST-POSITION: No. 4

JOCKEY: Mike Smith  / TRAINER: Bob Baffert

RECORD: 5 starts: 2-2-1

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 111

RUNNING STYLE: Presser (Prefers to press the pace)

CAREER EARNINGS: $522,800

The top jockey-trainer duo of Mike Smith (most mounts in Derby history, 28) and Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert (tied for most-Derby wins, 6) have their work cut out on Saturday after drawing down to the inside of the 20-horse field.  Post No. 4 has only produced five Derby winners in 95 starts (5.3%). An entrant breaking from post 4 has not crossed the wire first in the first leg of the Triple Crown in 15 years, last achieved by Super Saver in 2010.

The gate-to-wire Wood Memorial winner has a similar style to his sire Authentic who upset the Kentucky Derby field in 2020 paying $18.80. Baffert was pleased with Rodriguez’s latest five-furlongs workout in 1:00.00 at Churchill Downs on April 27. However, Baffert did make it clear he would have preferred to have Rodriguez “break from the middle of the field as opposed to the 4-hole, while simply accepting his fate as the “luck of the draw.”

Burnham Square 12-1

POST-POSITION: No. 9

JOCKEY: Brian Hernandez Jr.  / TRAINER: Ian Wilkes

RECORD: 6 starts: 3-1-1

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 104

RUNNING STYLE: Closer

CAREER EARNINGS: $977,755

Brian Hernandez Jr., who delivered the rare Oaks-Derby Double last year aboard Thorpedo Anna and Mystik Dan, drew post No. 9 in his attempt to go back-to-back with Burnham Square. Historically, post 9 has only produced 4 Derby champions in 91 starts (4.4%), last accomplished by Riva Ridge in 1972. 

Despite breaking from a post that has not won in 53 years, trainer Ian Wilkes shared that he is “very happy with post 9.” The Holy Bull and Blue Grass Stakes is training well working up to the race turning in a bullet five-furlongs in :59.20 at Churchill Downs on April 26.

Luxor Cafe 15-1

POST-POSITION: No. 9

JOCKEY: Joao Moreira / TRAINER: Noriyuki Hori

RECORD: 6 starts: 4-1-0

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: n/a

RUNNING STYLE: Stalker (Presser) 

CAREER EARNINGS: $379,057

If Luxor Cafe can become the first Japanese horse (0-for-8) to win the Kentucky Derby, he will need to do so breaking from post No.7. The middle gate owns a strong ITM rate of 21.3% in 94 races.

This son of American Pharoah, who had the horse racing buzzing following his  5-length win in the Fukuryu Stakes, has arrived at Churchill Downs in excellent condition. Assistant trainer Natoto Suzuki shared: “Despite the long trip from Japan to America, he has managed to maintain his condition quite well and we are very happy with him.”

Luxor Cafe will aim to be the second Japanese horse in as many years to hit the board in the first leg of the Triple Crown following Forever Young’s 3rd place finish last year.

Citizen Bull 20-1

POST-POSITION: No. 1

JOCKEY: Martin Garcia  / TRAINER: Bob Baffert

RECORD: 6 starts: 4-0-1

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 107

RUNNING STYLE: Pacesetter / Presser

CAREER EARNINGS: $1,451,000

The winner of the American Pharoah Stakes, Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and Robert B. Lewis Stakes was perhaps one of the biggest losers of the post-position lottery, drawing the dreaded rail. As we highlighted in our historical look at the post-positionsIt has been 39 years since Ferdinand (1986) crossed the wire first, breaking from the No. 1 post.

Following his disappointing 10-length defeat to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby, trainer Bob Baffert was left desiring a redraw on Saturday. 

“I want to challenge (being assigned post No. 1), I need a red flag, I want to redraw,” joked Baffert. “I didn’t want the 1. You never like the 1. I’ve always said they need to get rid of the 1-hole in the last race. Once you have it, you can’t worry about it. He likes running on the lead, so Martin (Garcia) will just send him away from there.” 

Backers of Citizen Bull are hoping the speedy colt can repeat his gate-to-wire victory in the 2024 Breeders' Cup Juvenile in the biggest race of the year at longshot odds. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Frank Taddeo
FRANK TADDEO

Frank Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frank Taddeo primarily performs as On SI’s Senior Fantasy Analyst, providing his significant experience and resources in the sports world.

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