FIFA research shows 48-team, 16-group World Cup is most profitable option

FIFA also notes that the current, 32-team, eight-group format is the best for overall competition.

GENEVA (AP) — The best and most profitable way to expand the World Cup is a 48-team tournament of 16 three-team groups, according to FIFA's in-house research which accepts the current 32-nation format produces the highest quality soccer.

The preferred format announced by FIFA President Gianni Infantino this month rates highest in a 64-page analysis of five options for the 2026 World Cup, the first when change can be made.

FIFA concludes "the 48-team (16x3) format would appear to offer the most tangible and intangible value," in the document seen by The Associated Press.

With extra knockout games in a new Round of 32, the format of 80 matches—each in an exclusive time slot over 32 days—appeals to broadcasters and sponsors and would raise income, FIFA suggested.

FIFA also wants to please fans and broadcasters in "major markets" by creative scheduling of kickoffs in their prime time back home rather than in the host nation.

Revenue could rise almost 20% to $6.5 billion, using the projected $5.5 billion income from the 2018 World Cup in Russia as a base comparison. Though organizing costs would also project to rise, from around $2 billion to $2.3 billion, the potential profit would increase by $640 million, the research said.

The best World Cup format–that FIFA would never consider

Still, FIFA cautions ahead of its ruling Council's planned Jan. 10 vote in Zurich that "it should not be a financial decision."

"Instead, the goal of expanding the FIFA World Cup is to further advance the vision to promote the game of football, protect its integrity and bring the game to all," the document noted.

However, it does not specify a detail that UEFA President Aleksander Ceferin asked for—how the 16 extra places would be shared among six continental confederations. UEFA now has 13 qualifying slots and could be in line for 15 in a political process set to best reward Africa and Asia.

FIFA acknowledges that quality of play could drop by adding 16 more of its 211 member federations.

The "absolute quality" of soccer—with high-ranked teams playing each other most often—is achieved by the 32-team format being used in Russia and at the 2022 event in Qatar. FIFA said it made 10,000 tournament simulations to reach that conclusion.

Keeping the 32-team format is one option but FIFA's research shows clear intent to change that was promised during Infantino's election. He campaigned for a 40-team tournament that would give Europe a new quota of 14.

GALLERY: All-time World Cup winners

World Cup Winners

1930: Uruguay

The hosts won the first World Cup, beating Argentina 4-2 in the final. Uruguay's victory in the 13-team tournament was the start of a trend: The host nation has won six of 18 World Cups, and even lesser sides that have hosted usually have exceeded expectations.

1934: Italy

The host nation delivered again as Italy beat Czechoslovakia 2-1 in the final thanks to an extra-time goal from Angelo Schiavo. The Italians had opened the tournament with a 7-1 rout of the United States before beating Spain and Australia en route to the final.

1938: Italy

Italy won its second consecutive World Cup behind striker Silvo Piola, who scored twice and set up another goal in a 4-2 victory over Hungary in the final. The tournament included Brazil's epic 6-5 win over Poland in the first round in which Ernest Wilimowski scored four goals in a losing effort and Leonidas countered with a hat trick.

1950: Uruguay

While the United States pulled off the shocker of the competition by beating England, Uruguay joined Italy as two-time World Cup winners. Alcides Ghiggia scored in every game for Uruguay, including the game-winner in the final against host Brazil.

1954: West Germany

West Germany lost 8-3 to Hungary in the second game of the tournament, but exacted revenge in the final when it overcame an early two-goal deficit to win 3-2. This was the highest-scoring World Cup in history (5.38 goals-per-game average), with Hungary accounting for 26 in five games.

1958: Brazil

The first internationally televised World Cup gave us Brazil's Samba soccer and 17-year-old sensation Pele, who scored six goals in the tournament. It also provided the first winner outside its home continent, Brazil, which defeated host Sweden 5-2 in the final.

1962: Brazil

Despite the loss of Pele to injury, the Brazilians looked as dazzling as ever, overwhelming Chile 4-2 in the semifinal. The Czechs put up more of a fight in the final, but were overcome by two second-half goals as the Brazilians repeated as champions.

1966: England

England triumphed on home soil under Alf Ramsey, who'd revolutionized the national team. The 4-2 win over West Germany after extra time in the final remains the defining moment in English soccer, though the containment of Portugal a game earlier was equally decisive.

1970: Brazil

Brazil's free-scoring run through the rounds, a scintillating semifinal between Italy and Germany and Gordon Banks' "save of the century" against Pele in Brazil's classic group victory over England helped make this what is widely viewed as the best World Cup ever. Brazil downed Italy 4-1 in the final.

1974: West Germany

Led by Sepp Maier, Franz Beckenbauer and Gerd Müller, West Germany overcame a classy Dutch side in the final to win the title on home soil.

1978: Argentina

The first World Cup in Argentina ended with a fifth title for a host nation. Mario Kempes won the Golden Boot with six goals, including two (to go with one assist) in Argentina's 3-1 victory over the Netherlands in the final. This was Holland's second consecutive loss in a World Cup final.

1982: Italy

In the first 24-team finals (eight more than in '78), Italy unexpectedly matched Brazil with its third title. West Germany and Brazil were the favorites and both won every game in qualifying, but Italy, led by Paolo Rossi, who had recently returned from a match-fixing suspension, knocked off both en route to victory.

1986: Argentina

Maradona owned the 1986 finals in Mexico, playing with fearlessness and guile–and a little luck, too, as his Hand of God goal helped Argentina slip past England in the quarterfinals. His performance against Belgium in the semis (two second-half goals) was incredible, and though the Germans kept him quiet for most of the final, it was his cross that set up Jorge Barruchaga for the winner.

1990: West Germany

In a rematch of the '86 final, West Germany got the best of Argentina 1-0 in a physical match (an appropriate finish to a rough-and-tumble tournament short on goals) in Italy.

1994: Brazil

Brazil and Italy played a mediocre final in the first tournament hosted by the United States, with the Brazilians winning in a penalty shootout after a 0-0 finish following extra time. Brazil became the World Cup's first four-time winner.

1998: France

France came back from a goal down against Croatia in the semifinal to set up its first final appearance, against Brazil. Rumors abounded that Ronaldo suffered a fit immediately before the match, but host France deserved its win after completely dominating the match thanks to two first-half headers from Zinedine Zidane.

2002: Brazil

Japan and South Korea became the World Cup's first co-hosts, and the first in Asia, and they produced a tournament full of surprises, if not amazing soccer from the usual suspects. The unexpected success of newcomer Senegal, as well as Turkey, the United States and South Korea, added to the novelty of the event. In the end, though, the final was contested between old faces Brazil and Germany, despite the relative weakness of their lineups. Ronaldo scored both goals in Brazil's 2-0 victory.

2006: Italy

Italy went unbeaten in the group stages and was then inconsistent through the knockouts, but deservedly took an extra-time victory over host Germany in the semis before beating France on penalties in the final. The French had started to dominate into extra time, but Zinedane Zidane's headbutt on Marco Materazzi left it a man down, and David Trezeguet's missed penalty handed Italy a fourth World Cup.

2010: Spain

Spain capped its golden era with a World Cup triumph, following its Euro 2008 title with another on the grand stage. Andres Iniesta's goal in extra time of a physical final led Spain over the Netherlands and allowed La Furia Roja to lift the trophy.

2014: Germany

Germany's run concluded with an extra-time triumph over Lionel Messi's Argentina, with Mario Gotze supplying a sensational winner to crown the Germans once again.

Infantino now points to "16x3" being the most popular option.

"The big, big, big majority is in favor of the 48 teams with the 16 groups of three," the FIFA leader said after a Dec. 7 meeting of some members in Singapore.

Infantino previously promoted 48 teams with an opening playoff round involving 32. That idea failed to persuade FIFA members and commercial partners who want more certainty, less short-notice travel for fans, and a minimum of two matches per team.

Expansion for the first time since 1998 is "viable without major concessions on the sporting aspects of the tournament," FIFA insisted.

The biggest change a 16x3 format could force is penalty shootouts after drawn group games to ensure there is a 'winner.' That radical change to soccer rules, first reported by the AP, would help stop teams conspiring to arrange a favorable result in the final group game.

FIFA has sent the research document to Council members and member federations, who want more World Cup slots to help encourage young players and sponsors at home.