Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Broncos vs. Bills in NFL Wild Card Round)

Breaking down the best bets for the Denver Broncos-Buffalo Bills matchup in the wild card round on Sunday.

Can the Broncos cover as road underdogs? / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Bo Nix will be the first of two rookie quarterbacks to make their postseason debut on Sunday, as the Denver Broncos take on the Buffalo Bills in a wild card matchup. 

Buffalo, the No. 2 seed in the AFC, is favored by 8.5 points in this matchup against the No. 7-seeded Broncos.

Denver has just two wins this season against teams over .500, and it lost to the Los Angeles Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals before clinching a playoff spot in Week 18 against the Kansas City Chiefs’ backups.

Josh Allen and the Bills have been solid when favored at home this season, covering in well over half of their games. However, they have to deal with one of the NFL’s best defenses — and best squads against the spread — on Sunday.

Nix has impressed as a rookie, but going head-to-head with Allen is a tough task for any quarterback. 

For bettors looking to wager on this matchup, the SI Betting team has you covered with a variety of picks, ranging from the game lines to the prop market. 

Here’s a full breakdown of the picks for Broncos vs. Bills. 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Broncos vs. Bills

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Denver Broncos +8.5 (-112) vs. Buffalo Bills – Iain MacMillan
• Marvin Mims Jr. OVER 3.5 Receptions (-165) – Iain MacMillan
• James Cook Anytime TD (-130) – Peter Dewey
• Josh Allen OVER 40.5 Rushing Yards (-120) – Iain MacMillan

Denver Broncos +8.5 (-112) vs. Buffalo Bills – Iain MacMillan

SI's NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan made a pick for every game this week in his Road to Super Bowl 59. In this matchup, he’s taking the points with the Broncos: 

There's no denying the Broncos have the better defense in this game, which could make this projected lopsided fair an interesting duel.

The Broncos rank second in opponent yards per play (4.9), first in opponent EPA per play, second in opponent success rate, and third in opponent points per game (18.3). Meanwhile, the Bills rank 21st (5.5), 16th, 20th, and 11th (21.6) in those four respective stats.

Yes, the Bills offense is significantly better and could find ways to score at will, but I'm not ready to lay this many points on a team that is clearly inferior on one side of the football. I'll take the points with the Broncos and see if they can challenge the heavily favored Bills.

Marvin Mims Jr. OVER 3.5 Receptions (-165) – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, MacMillan wrote up some prop bets for Sunday’s matchup, sharing why Marvin Mims Jr. is a solid bet for Denver: 

Marvin Mims Jr. has caught fire lately and I'm going to ride that train in the postseason. He has hauled in a combined 13 receptions over the last two games, serving as a great compliment to Courtland Sutton.

The fact the Bills are big-time favorites should help Mims' numbers as well. If the Broncos find themselves playing from behind, the Broncos will have to throw the ball often in the second half to catch up. If they do, this has the potential of being an easy winner.

James Cook Anytime TD (-130) – Peter Dewey

The Broncos are a great run defense, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry this season (second-best in the NFL), but I don’t think that’s where James Cook needs to thrive in this one.

Cook had 16 rushing scores and 18 total touchdowns this season, and Denver has struggled to cover running backs in the passing game, allowing six receiving touchdowns and 641 receiving yards to them this season.

Don’t be shocked if the Bills try to get Cook the ball in space as a receiver, especially since he caught 32 passes for 258 yards and two scores in the regular season. 

Josh Allen OVER 40.5 Rushing Yards (-120) – Iain MacMillan

Sticking with MacMillan’s props, there is way to back Josh Allen against this vaunted Denver defense: 

Just because I'm fading Josh Allen's passing yards, doesn't mean I'm going to fade him in every aspect. In fact, I think the Broncos' secondary will force him to take off with his legs more often than he'd like.

It's also worth noting how much more Allen runs with the ball in the playoffs compared to in the regular season. In the regular season, he averages 37.3 rushing yards per game while in the playoffs he averages 56.3, which is well above his set total for Sunday's game against the Broncos.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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