College Basketball Best Bets: Zag Up Your Friday

James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

The college basketball collective savant that is Three Man Weave and SI Gambling Producer Max Meyer are here to help start your weekend on the right foot with three best bets for Friday's CBB slate. We're using the current odds at William Hill (as of 11:55 a.m. EST) for these bets.

No. 8 Gonzaga at Texas A&M
3MW Pick: Gonzaga -7

Today is the one-year anniversary of Gonzaga’s 23-point victory over the Texas A&M Aggies in Spokane. The Aggies were just embarking on their worst season since 2014 and Billy Kennedy’s final in College Station, while the Zags were proving early that they were a legitimate title contender. Tonight, A&M seeks to avenge its embarrassing thumping at the paws of the Bulldogs, while Gonzaga looks to pick up its first quality win of the season.

Gonzaga lost a ton of pieces from that team, but it’s showing no signs of falling off after a 3-0 start and an average margin of victory of 37.3 PPG. A&M is no cupcake, unlike Gonzaga’s first three opponents, but the Aggies have looked shaky in their first two contests. Northwestern State played A&M close for 30 minutes on Nov. 6th—the Aggies won the last 10 minutes of the first half by 13, but otherwise the game was a dead heat. Louisiana Monroe held a 10-point lead on A&M with 17:26 left to go in the game before ultimately losing by six. Northwestern State is one of the worst teams in the country this year while ULM is not considered a contender in the Sun Belt. There’s more than meets the eye to the Aggies’ 2-0 start.

To A&M’s credit, they have been shorthanded in the early going. Shot-blocker extraordinaire Josh Nebo missed the first game and then played just 18 minutes off the bench against ULM as he worked to get his sea legs back. He is A&M’s most vital player against Gonzaga, a team that features three legitimate big men, none of whom are named Killian Tillie. TAMU point guard TJ Starks has also missed the first two contests due to suspension and looks to be out for this one as well. As much as we at 3MW have ridiculed Starks over the past year (he’s wildly inefficient, like almost historically inefficient), he is the Aggies’ point guard and one of their most veteran players. His absence will mean something, even if just a little. On Gonzaga’s side, Tillie is likely still out as he still recovers from a knee injury, but he did fully participate in warm-ups against North Dakota, a positive sign that he’ll be back soon.

What’s scary about this Gonzaga squad is Tillie’s absence doesn’t even mean that much. Filip Petrusev, a 6’11” sophomore out of Serbia, is averaging 19.7 PPG, 9.0 RPG, and 2.7 BPG in just 22.3 MPG and currently sits sixth in KenPom’s Player of the Year rankings. Freshmen Drew Timme and Anton Watson have also been excellent this season, owning the glass in the early going and shooting a combined 30/42 (71.4%) from the floor. That triumvirate is going to destroy the Aggies on the offensive glass, an area which has already proven to be a weakness for them through two games. Northwestern State grabbed 11 offensive rebounds (33.3% of their misses) and ULM grabbed 19 (38.8%). For reference, the BEST offensive rebounding team in the country last season grabbed 38.7%. Look for Watson, Petrusev and Timme to crush A&M on the glass, even with Nebo roaming the paint.

The last key matchup point to this game relates to the three-point line. While the Zags don’t really rely on the three-ball to score the basketball, they are one of the best shooting teams in the country. A&M has given up a ton of open looks this season, perhaps by design against Northwestern State and ULM, but they absolutely cannot do that against Gonzaga. Corey Kispert, Joel Ayayi and Admon Gilder are a combined 21/46 (45.6%) from deep this year and will feast on open looks if A&M sags to protect the paint. What makes Mark Few’s offense so potent this year is its ability to beat an opposing team from inside or out. A&M will have to pick its poison against a Zags squad that is elite at scoring from anywhere on the floor. On the other end, A&M does not have a lot of shooters and needs to get points via dribble-drive and the foul line. Gonzaga has consistently had one of the better interior defenses in the land under Few and this year is no exception with its three near-7-footers and the burly Watson.

Ultimately this game boils down to a few simple tidbits: Gonzaga can score on Texas A&M; Texas A&M cannot score on Gonzaga; Gonzaga will own the glass battle. 

South Dakota State at Nebraska
3MW Pick: Nebraska -6.5

The Cornhuskers are currently spelunking into the depths of the Earth, searching for the deep, dark cavern that would serve as the program’s metaphorical rock bottom. Losing two buy games to start the year (to UC Riverside—who was without its best player—and Southern Utah) is in the vicinity of such a nadir, but a third straight “epitome of brutality” loss in the season’s first 10 days would truly be the lowest of the lows.

Can The Mayor (Nebraska Coach Fred Hoiberg) restore order to the chaotic disaster that is Nebrasketball right now? Can anyone?

I’m banking on that answer being “yes," and the primary reason is also the simplest: the ‘Huskers simply cannot be this bad! And I don’t mean that in a vague, “they seem better than this” sense; I’m talking specific stats. Nebraska is currently shooting 21.2% from three-point range, and while there’s certainly no Eric Piatkowski on this year’s roster—only his walk-on son—this group of shooters is far better than that success rate would suggest. Cam Mack and Jervay Green, both of whom were top-10 JUCO transfers per jucorecruiting.com, have been the most flagrantly inaccurate, as their perimeter strokes seemingly got lost during the move to Lincoln. I steadfastly believe that will correct itself, though, (hopefully) starting today.

Similarly, the Cornhuskers are rebounding at rates on each end of the court that would have ranked 349th (offensive) and 339th (defensive) in the country last year. I know they’re smallish and inexperienced, but they’re not that small—154th nationally in average height, and I refuse to believe they’ll continue to get obliterated on the boards in such a devastating manner.

And on that note, from a matchup perspective, South Dakota State isn’t the type of team that will be able to fully exploit Nebraska’s weak interior defense and rebounding. Matt Dentlinger and Douglas Wilson are solid forwards, but the Jackrabbits don’t have a 7-footer (like UC Riverside) or multiple power conference transfers (like Southern Utah) who can terrorize the Huskers in the paint.

Lastly, Nebraska catches South Dakota State in a very vulnerable schedule spot. The Jackrabbits just played two games on the west coast, winning in double overtime at Cal St. Bakersfield on Saturday and falling to USC on Tuesday in a game that was much closer than the 84-66 final score would indicate. They now must play a third straight road game, and that travel has to be tough on a team that isn’t zipping around the country in a private jet.

Thus, I will be riding with Nebrasketball on Friday evening, optimistically expecting a breakout offensive performance while also being fully prepared to meet the Huskers at rock bottom should things go south—way south—yet again.

Missouri State at Xavier
Meyer's Pick: Missouri State +13.5

Xavier squeaked out an overtime win over Missouri in a rock fight earlier this week, and the Musketeers find themselves in another battle where the offenses are likely to struggle on Friday night.

Missouri State is the deserved favorite to win the Missouri Valley Conference this year under second-year coach Dana Ford, as the amount of talent the Bears have is absurd. Tulio Da Silva dominated in his first year at Missouri State after transferring from South Florida, as he was first-team All-MVC last season after putting up 14.3 PPG and 7.4 RPG. He also made a big impact on the defensive end with steals and blocks. Joining Da Silva in the frontcourt is West Virginia grad transfer Lamont West (11.1 PPG, 4.1 RPG last season), who could very well be up for similar conference accolades in his lone season with the team. Senior Keandre Cook is the team’s best perimeter player and outside shooter.

But what makes Missouri State so tough is its defense. The two biggest keys for Ford’s defense are to limit shots close to the rim and generate turnovers. Per hoop-math.com, Missouri State allowed the lowest percentage of shots at the rim in the entire country last season (22.1%). Obviously it’s a small sample size this season, but through three games, 8.2% of total shots against the Bears have come at the rim, which is currently the lowest in the country. As a result, opponents are going to shoot a lot of jumpers, and could have open looks at three if a Missouri State guard gambles for a steal. Opponents shot 40.3% from three last season vs. the Bears, which was the second-highest mark in the country.

Forcing Xavier to be a jump-shooting team in this game could make the Musketeers vulnerable. They’ve really struggled with outside shooting so far this season, as they’ve made 13 of their 63 attempts from beyond the arc. It’ll be a challenge for Missouri State to contain Naji Marshall and Quentin Goodin, but if they force them to take jumpers instead of attacking the rim, the Bears can cause this team to struggle on the offensive end. Xavier will still be without freshman KyKy Tandy, who Travis Steele has said is the team’s best shooter.

As for turnovers, Missouri State’s defense ranked 23rd in turnover rate and 55th in steal percentage last season. Through three games this season, those numbers are 69th and 76th respectively. Any easy basket in transition will be key in this one, as Xavier’s defense is also extremely strong, and Missouri State could have trouble in the halfcourt against the Musketeers’ hybrid pack-line defense.

The total has shifted from 131 to 129, so the market is also thinking this will be a defensive slugfest. Missouri State has also moved from +16 to +13.5. With all of the talent the Bears have, that’s a lot of points in a game featuring two very strong defenses. 

Season Record: 4-5