College Basketball Best Bets: Temple Won't Be Able to Weather This Storm

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

College basketball experts Three Man Weave and SI Gambling Producer Max Meyer are back with their three best bets for Tuesday's slate, including a couple neutral-site games taking place in Brooklyn. For these bets, we're using the current odds from William Hill (as of 10:52 a.m. EST). 

Northeastern at Eastern Michigan
3MW Pick: Northeastern +2

Though the Huskies have struggled this season, they are still an offensive force to be reckoned with, and head coach Bill Coen has had 10 days to prepare for an EMU 2-3 zone that they should shred.

For the unfamiliar, Eastern Michigan plays the third-most zone in the country behind Syracuse and Merrimack. Head coach Rob Murphy is a Jim Boeheim disciple and his squads over the past few seasons have been competitive thanks to perimeter length and solid shot blocking in the interior. This defense has allowed EMU to punch above its weight class this year and sit at a comfy 8-1 overall despite the loss of its three best players from a disappointing 2018-19 squad and an offense that ranks 291st per KenPom.

Northeastern will be by far the best offense EMU has faced thus far this season, ranking 60th overall per KenPom. For context, EMU has played three non-Division I games and the best offense per KenPom it’s faced so far was ranked 147th, and the average offensive ranking of its six D1 opponents is 219. Coen has long been lauded as an offensive coaching savant, running an intricate motion style that adapts to his roster as well as any coach in America. This year, the Huskies have been relying on the three-point line to score most of their points, perfect for a matchup against a zone that allows the sixth-highest 3PA rate in the country. Northeastern will see constant open looks from outside the arc, and if its third-best 42.3% 3P clip continues to hold, it should have no trouble putting points on the board. Coen will have four guys on the floor at all times who can shoot the three, led by senior guard Jordan Roland who is pouring in 25.0 PPG in the early going.

The other side of the ball is where Northeastern has struggled this season, and it’s the main reason the Huskies sit at an unsatisfying 5-5 overall. But EMU’s offense is pitiful, relying on dribble-drive and free-throw attempts to score. The Eagles rank second nationally in FT rate, something Northeastern has actually done well preventing this season. Coen’s team is not big by any stretch of the imagination, but it boxes out well as a team and plays smart defensively, avoiding ticky-tack fouls. EMU won’t be able to exploit Northeastern’s lack of size, as big man Boubacar Toure, while a fantastic shot blocker, is not skilled offensively on the block.

I’ll summarize this pick with what I alluded to in the opening paragraph: Bill Coen is dangerous with 10 days of rest. Eastern Michigan has also not played in 10 days, but Coen’s offensive gameplan trumps anything Rob Murphy could conjure to stop it. Expect the Huskies to put up points in droves in this game, taking advantage of the EMU zone while limiting the Eagles’ preferred free-throw opportunities on the other end.

Iona vs. Princeton (at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY)
3MW Pick: Princeton PK

I wouldn’t bet on seeing Jay-Z and Beyonce in their assigned courtside seats at Barclays tonight. The Nets are down in the Bayou taking on the Pelicans this evening, as college hoops will invade Brooklyn’s basketball epicenter. For both Princeton and Iona, two teams in the midst of some internal soul searching, this stage serves as a therapeutic placemat for which November’s trials and tribulations can be forgotten—if only for a moment. Princeton and Iona enter tonight’s tilt with a combined 4-10 outright and against-the-spread record. Not exactly what you’d expect for two presumed title contenders in their respective conferences (Princeton in the Ivy; Iona in the MAAC), but I’m lobbying for a non-conference mulligan on behalf of both.

In college basketball’s court of karma, Iona’s case for a November do-over is a slam dunk. The Gaels are playing without their mustached maestro Tim Cluess calling the shots from the sidelines, as he is currently away from the team with an illness. There are 353 teams in Division I basketball. You can count on one hand the number of other teams missing a head coach at the moment. Without Cluess’s voice and direction, Iona has looked "clueless" in the early going—granted, it’s hard to extrapolate any bulletproof conclusions from only five games. The Gaels had a few applause-worthy moments in the first half against UConn, but promptly rolled over in the final 20 minutes, letting the Huskies run away with an 18-point victory.

It was hard not to notice Ben Perez’s soothing presence in the backcourt during that game, who mysteriously left the team over Thanksgiving break. Perez was projected to be a key cog in the Gaels’ guard nucleus, a long-range assassin who led the entire MAAC last season with a ridiculous 70.1% true shooting percentage (per KenPom). Iona still boasts a cavalry of three-point drillers, but they are far from the Bob Lee Swagger-caliber snipers Iona typically boasts and they'll be hard-pressed to find open looks against Mitch Henderson’s “no threes” defense.

Betting against the Gaels without a head coach and its top three-point shooter is enticing enough as is, but this is not just a "fade Iona" angle. Princeton is oozing with value in the betting markets for a myriad of reasons, and preliminary evidence of this upswing is beginning to shine through. First of all, I’m not sure what the Tigers did to upset the basketball Gods, but the powers that be have cursed Princeton with some devastating three-point shooting luck this season. Opponents are connecting on 42% of their triples this year, the fourth-highest rate in America. This is not a result of poor closeouts or broken communication on the perimeter. Teams are just simply knocking down shots, a trend that is destined to correct over the coming weeks.

Those shots finally hit iron last game against Fairleigh Dickinson, who made just 6-of-23 attempts from behind the stripe, but it was the rise of secret weapon Ryan Schwieger that has me all over Princeton in this matchup. It’s hard to find another player who means more to his team’s offensive efficiency than Schwieger, a bonafide bucket getter who’s been in and out of the lineup with a multitude of injuries over the last two years. Projecting his minute count and game-to-game availability is always a crapshoot, but when he’s locked and loaded, he single-handedly lifts the Tigers’ offense.

Last season, in the nine games in which Schwieger clocked 25 or more minutes, Princeton was 6-3 against the spread. In those nine contests, he was KenPom's game MVP four times, lighting it up from all over the floor while serving as a pivotal triggerman to run the offense. Such was the case against FDU last game, when Schwieger tallied a season-high 31 minutes off the bench in his fourth full game back, a flashing red light indicating he’s now back to peak form. If he surpasses that magic 25-minute threshold this evening, the Tigers should control this game wire-to-wire.

Miami vs. Temple (at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY)
Meyer's Pick: Miami +2.5

Temple has gotten off to a solid 7-2 start under first-year coach Aaron McKie, as the Owls have looked great in wins and competitive in losses (led with under four minutes left vs. Maryland before losing by 7, led with under five minutes left vs. Missouri before losing by 10). The key behind Temple’s play thus far this season is that it ranks 20th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, notably holding opponents to 42.7% shooting on twos (32nd) and 28.2% shooting on threes (34th).

However, the three-point “defense” is unsustainable. The Owls have surrendered the highest three-point attempt rate in the country at 52.3. As Ken Pomeroy wrote back in 2012, “teams have much more control over how many threes their opponents shoot than how many they make.” Essentially, the better way to gauge how strong a team’s perimeter defense is by how many threes are taken against it vs. how many threes are made against it. So this makes the Owls a clear regression candidate, as you would expect teams to hit more threes against them as they continue to give up lots of attempts.

Miami doesn’t take threes that often (282nd in three-point attempt rate), but the Hurricanes are damn good at knocking them down (39.8 3P%, 21st in CBB). Specifically, sharpshooter Dejan Vasiljevic has been on an absolute tear, converting on a sizzling 51.8% of his 56 shots from beyond the arc. With other weapons who can consistently knock down shots in point guard Chris Lykes and wing Kameron McGusty, Miami is well-equipped to handle Temple on that end of the floor.

But while Miami ranks 19th in adjusted offensive efficiency, the Canes are 200th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The biggest weakness has been their interior defense, as per hoop-math.com, they’re allowing opponents to shoot 65.7% at the rim (40th-worst in CBB). Their two-point defense overall is 288th (53.6%), and that has really hurt them in losses. On twos, Louisville shot 56.8%, Florida shot 54.1% and UConn shot 61.0% in Miami’s three losses, all by double digits. In a game in which Miami nearly blew a 19-point halftime lead, Illinois shot 61.1% on twos. Big men Kofi Cockburn, Josh Carlton and Kerry Blackshear have feasted inside against this team.

But the problem for Temple is that the Owls aren’t really the type of team to exploit this advantage. With star wings Nate Pierre-Louis and Quinton Rose, this is a team that is much more likely to shoot jumpers than get to the rim. Just 33.5% of Temple’s shot attempts have come at the basket, which is tied for the 98th-lowest mark in the country, per hoop-math.

Having an experienced coach like Jim Larranaga on the bench, who missed last game due to back spasms, would be another edge for Miami in this one, especially when he’s coaching up against a first-year guy like McKie. I just think there are clear regression signs for Temple’s defense, and that will make things much tougher for an offense that has really struggled shooting the ball. I’ll take the 2.5 points here with Miami in Brooklyn, as I think the Hurricanes win this one.  

Season Record: 16-15