NFL Week 5 Betting Preview: Early Line Movement & Odds Tracking
After one month of NFL action, sports bettors continue to witness underdogs holding the edge in the wagering outcome with a mark of 36-28 against the spread (ATS) (56.3%). Week 5 begins with a primetime showdown between the Rams and Seahawks on Thursday Night Football. Los Angeles is currently a 2-point road favorite, with a total sitting on the game at 54.5 at SI Sportsbook.
Let’s take an early look-ahead at several of the biggest games that have garnered significant betting attention resulting in noticeable line moves on the weekend slate.
Paul Rutherford/USA TODAY Sports
NFL Week 5 Games ‘On The Move’
Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Moneyline: Miami (+375) | Tampa Bay (-500)
- Spread: MIA +10 (-110) | TB -10 (-110)
- Total: 48– Over: (-110) | Under: 48 (-110)
- Game Info: Oct. 10, 2021, 1 p.m. ET | CBS
Bettors are strongly investing that Tom Brady will have no issue with the in-state rival Dolphins, who are trending in the wrong direction following three consecutive losses to the Bills, Raiders and Colts. This game opened in early wagering with the Buccaneers as 7.5-point home favorites but has since been adjusted to Tampa Bay as a 10-point favorite at SI Sportsbook. Miami backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett has failed to throw for more than 215 passing yards in any game this season while filling in for the injured Tua Tagovailoa. Expect the Buccaneers to make Miami one-dimensional with their suffocating, league-best run defense that is only allowing 47.5 rushing yards per game. Tampa Bay, the biggest Week 5 favorite, will easily be the biggest liability for sportsbooks around the country, likely being a target in nearly every teaser wager on Sunday’s slate.
BY THE NUMBERS
- Public Betting: 57% of money on Tampa Bay
- Line Move: Tampa Bay -7.5 to Tampa Bay -10
2021 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- MIA: 2-2 ATS (Home: 0-2 ATS, Away: 2-0 ATS)
- TB: 1-3 ATS (Home: 1-1 ATS, Away: 0-2 ATS)
2020 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- MIA: 11-5 ATS (Home: 7-1 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
- TB: 9-7 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
Kareem Elgazzar/USA TODAY Network
Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals
- Moneyline: Green Bay (-163) | Cincinnati (+138)
- Spread: GB -3 (-110) | CIN +3 (-110)
- Total: 50– Over (-110) | Under 50.5 (-110)
- Game Info: Oct. 10, 2021, 1 p.m ET | Fox
We are witnessing reverse steam involving Aaron Rodgers and the Packers heading into Week 5, when they travel to Cincinnati to take on Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Cincinnati, off consecutive victories against the Steelers and Jaguars, is off to a 3-1 straight-up (SU) and 2-2 ATS start. This game opened with a 6.5-point line in early wagering but has since moved to the Packers as only a 3-point favorite at SI Sportsbook - despite strong handle in support of Green Bay. Pro money is wagering that the Packers are not worthy of being more than a field goal road favorite despite three consecutive SU and ATS wins over the Lions, 49ers and Steelers. The Packers have won five of their last seven road games dating back to last season.
BY THE NUMBERS
- Public Betting: 71% of money on Green Bay
- Line Move: Bengals +6.5 to Bengals +3
2021 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- GB: 3-1 ATS (Home: 2-0 ATS, Away: 1-1 ATS)
- CIN: 1-2 ATS (Home: 0-1 ATS, Away: 1-1 ATS)
2020 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- GB: 9-7 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
- CIN: 9-7 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
Billy Hardiman/USA TODAY Sports
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
- Moneyline: San Francisco (+205) | Arizona (-250)
- Spread: SF +5.5 (-110) | ARZ -5.5 (-110)
- Total: 50– Over: (-110) | Under: 50 (-110)
- Game Info: Oct. 10, 2021, 4:25 p.m. ET | Fox
Following Jimmy Garoppolo's calf injury, there is a strong chance the Trey Lance era in San Francisco could begin sooner than the club anticipated. The 49ers, who have lost two consecutive home games both straight-up and ATS to the Seahawks and Packers, have burned bettors in the first four weeks by posting a 1-3 ATS mark at SI Sportsbook. In Week 5, San Francisco will head on the road to take on the red-hot Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. Bettors are investing that Arizona will remain undefeated and will dominate a short-handed 49ers club it has bested in seven of the last ten matchups. Arizona, who has scored 31-plus points in all four wins, has seen the spread move 5.5 points off the early wagering number of ‘Pick. The Cardinals are now strong home favorites.
BY THE NUMBERS
- Public Betting: 61% of money on Arizona
- Line Move: ‘Pick to Arizona -5.5
2021 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- SF: 1-3 ATS (Home: 0-2 ATS, Away: 1-1 ATS)
- ARZ: 3-1 ATS (Home: 0-1 ATS, Away: 3-0 ATS)
2020 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- SF: 6-10 ATS (Home: 1-5 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS, Neutral: 0-2 ATS)
- ARZ: 7-9 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
Danny Medley/USA Today Sports
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
- Moneyline: Buffalo (+125) | Kansas City (-150)
- Spread: BUF +2.5 (-110) | KC -2.5 (-110)
- Total: 47.5– Over: (-110) | Under: 47.5 (-110)
- Game Info: Oct. 10, 2021, 8:20 pm ET | NBC
Sunday Night Football will offer one of the best games of the 2021 regular season with a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship matchup. The Bills, who have posted a 11-1 ATS mark over their last 12 regular season games dating back to 2020, will be looking to avenge last season’s 38-24 loss in the AFC Championship Game. Oddsmakers have witnessed strong steam on Josh Allen and the Bills at SI Sportsbook, forcing the Chiefs to become sizably smaller home favorites after public and pro money invested in Buffalo. The Bills have rewarded bettors with three consecutive SU and ATS wins, defeating the Texans, Football Team and Dolphins by a combined margin of 118-21.
The Chiefs opened as an early 4.5-point home favorite but it's now displaying Kansas City as only 2.5-point home favorites. Kansas City will look to build off last week’s 42-30 road win over the Eagles, which snapped a two-game losing streak. The Chiefs have been difficult for bettors to trust at Arrowhead Stadium, posting a 0-6 ATS mark over their last six regular season home games. However, we need to highlight that Kansas City beat the Bills on the road in the regular season and at home in the AFC Championship last season both SU and ATS.
BY THE NUMBERS
- Public Betting: 56% of money on Buffalo
- Line Move: Buffalo +4.5 to Buffalo +2.5
2021 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- BUF: 3-1 ATS (Home: 2-1 ATS, Away: 1-0 ATS)
- KC: 1-3 ATS (Home: 0-1 ATS, Away: 1-2 ATS)
2020 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- BUF: 10-6 ATS (Home: 6-2 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
- KC: 7-9 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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