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Monday Night Football Week 6: Bills at Titans—Lines, Odds, Analysis & Picks

A MNF betting breakdown of the matchup between Buffalo and Tennessee

Week 6 of the 2021 NFL season concludes with a battle of two first-place clubs on Monday night when Derrick Henry and the AFC South-leading Titans play host to Josh Allen and the AFC East-leading Bills. After losing to Pittsburgh 23-16 in their season opener, Buffalo has ripped off four consecutive straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) victories. Over that stretch, the Bills have dominated their opponents on both sides of the ball, outscoring Miami, Washington, Houston and Kansas City by a combined margin of 156-41.

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Oct 10, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) and tight end Dawson Knox (88) celebrate after a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Oct 10, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) and tight end Dawson Knox (88) celebrate after a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Spread: Buffalo Bills -5.5 (-110) | Tennessee Titans +5.5 (-110)

Moneyline: Buffalo (-250) | Tennessee (+205)

Total: 53,5– Over (-110) | Under 53.5 (-110)

Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: BUF 59% | TEN 41%

Game Info: Monday October 18, 2021 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN

Editor's note: Odds are subject to change

The line has ticked up slightly since its opening in favor of Buffalo (4-1 SU; 4-1 ATS), settling with the Bills as 5.5-point favorites over Tennessee (3-2 SU; 3-2 ATS) at SI Sportsbook. Bettors in early wagering are expecting a stronger defensive game than the oddsmakers are predicting, as the total has ticked down a point from its opening of 54.5 down to 53.5.

After an impressive 38-20 win over Kansas City on Sunday Night Football, the Bills head to Nashville in search of their third straight road win at Nissan Stadium. Buffalo’s passing attack was dominant in its win over Kansas City as Josh Allen threw for 315 yards and three touchdowns while adding 59 rushing yards and a score on the ground. On the other side of the ball, Tennessee earned a 37-19 victory over Jacksonville as 4-point road favorites. Once again Derrick Henry led the way, rushing for 130 yards and three touchdowns. The veteran running back leads the NFL with 640 rushing yards and seven touchdowns.

Oct 10, 2021; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) hands the ball to running back Derrick Henry (22) during the second half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Oct 10, 2021; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) hands the ball to running back Derrick Henry (22) during the second half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Titans Player Prop Info

My projections have Henry, who is aiming for his fifth consecutive 100-yard rushing effort, as well as wideouts A.J. Brown and Julio Jones being the three players to see significant volume in the offensive game plan for the Titans. This will be the first time since Week 2 that the Titans will have their big three on the field together. Jones is expected to make his return to the field after missing the past two games with a hamstring injury. Expect both Brown and Jones to test a Bills pass defense that has not allowed any opposing wideout to score this season. With all his weapons at his disposal, quarterback Ryan Tannehill will need to bring his 'A' game against this stout defense, which leads the NFL in points allowed per game (12.8). Tannehill has only thrown for multiple touchdowns once (against Indianapolis) in five games this season. Buffalo will likely try to stack the box to slow down Henry, so Tannehill, who has failed to top 212 yards passing in three of five games, will need to utilize his full complement of receiving options if the Titans have any hopes of pulling the upset. 

Buffalo Bills Dawson Knox

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Bills Player Prop Info

On the other side of the ball, Buffalo will likely lean on the arm of Allen who is once again a frontrunner for MVP honors, completing 62.3% of his passes. The fourth-year signal caller, who has thrown for multiple touchdowns in four of five games, has excellent weapons in Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders and Dawson Knox. Diggs will look to get going after a subpar start to the season., with 69 or fewer receiving yards in four of five games and only one touchdown. On the other side of the formation, Sanders is putting up incredible production, with 13 receptions for 222 yards and four touchdowns over the past two games. 

At the tight end position, Knox has emerged as a red-zone threat with a team-high five receiving touchdowns. Versatile running back Zach Moss has taken hold of the Buffalo backfield. He's become the PPR fantasy weapon managers were envisioning when they drafted him in the mid rounds, scoring three total touchdowns over the last two games. Moss will now face a Titans defense that has allowed an opposing running back to notch a rushing touchdown in every game this season.

Frankie's Monday Night Football Play

There simply is no way to get in front of this Buffalo stampede right now from a betting perspective. The Bills are the most complete team in the league right now and Allen is playing at an elite level. Lay the points on the road.

BET: Buffalo -5.5

SI PROP BETS:

Josh Allen, QB, Bills: OVER 288.5 Passing Yards

Zach Moss, RB, Bills: Anytime Touchdown (+120)

SI BET REVIEW

2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 2-2 ATS / Props 4-2 +2.95 units

2021 SI Betting NFL Football YTD: 11-9 ATS & Props +3.65 units

2020 SI Betting NFL Football: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)

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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.