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Monday Night Football Week 7: Saints at Seahawks—Lines, Odds, Analysis & Picks

A MNF betting breakdown of the matchup between New Orleans and Seattle

Week 7 of the 2021 NFL season concludes on Monday night when the struggling Seahawks play host to Alvin Kamara and the Saints. New Orleans has won two of its three road games both straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) through six weeks. Over that stretch, the Saints have beaten New England and Washington while falling to Carolina. Seattle has dropped four of its last five games and things will not get any easier on Monday when they will be forced to play without star quarterback Russell Wilson (finger) for the second consecutive week.

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New Orleans Saints Marquez Callaway, Jameis Winston

Spread: New Orleans Saints -4.5 (-110) | Seattle Seahawks +4.5 (-110)

Moneyline: New Orleans (-215) | Seattle (+175)

Total: 42.5– Over (-110) | Under 42.5 (-110)

Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: NO 48% | SEA 52%

Game Info: Monday October 25, 2021 8:15 p.m. EST | ESPN

Editor's Note - Odds are subject to change

The line has ticked up slightly since its opening in favor of New Orleans (3-2 SU; 3-2 ATS) settling with the Saints as 4.5-point favorites over Seattle (2-4 SU; 3-3 ATS) at SI Sportsbook. Bettors in early wagering are expecting a stronger defensive game than the oddsmakers are predicting as the total has ticked down two points from its opening of 44.5 down to 42.5.

Coming off the bye and an impressive 33-22 win over Washington back in Week 5, the Saints head to Seattle in search of their third straight road win at Lumen Field. New Orleans’ passing attack was dominant in the win over Washington as Jameis Winston threw for 279 yards and four touchdowns. 

On the other side of the ball, Seattle put forth a valiant effort in Geno Smith’s first start in the NFL since 2017 as a member of the New York Giants. However, the Seahawks lost, 23-20, at Pittsburgh as 5.5-point road underdogs. 

Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

Seahawks Player Prop Info

Filling in for the injured Chris Carson, backup Alex Collins led the Seattle offensive attack, rushing for 101 yards and one touchdown against Pittsburgh.

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My projections have Collins, scheduled for his third consecutive week of lead back duties, as well as wideouts DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, being the three players to see significant volume in the offensive game plan for the Seahawks. Collins is a solid bet to surpass his rushing total of 44.5 yards, despite the Saints ranking second in rushing yards allowed per game (79.0). The sixth-year veteran posted his second career 100-yard rushing effort last week against the Steelers and his volume of double-digit carries in three consecutive games leads to a projection above the posted total by oddsmakers. Expect both Metcalf and Lockett to test a Saints pass defense that ranks 23rd against the pass (275.0 yards per game) while only allowing four opposing wideouts to score this season. New Orleans ranks fourth in the NFL in points allowed at 18.2 points per game.

Week 12 NFL DFS Ambush Alvin Kamara

Saints Player Prop Info

On the other side of the ball, New Orleans will likely lean on running back Alvin Kamara who is averaging 96.2 total yards per game. The star back currently has a combined rushing and receiving yardage projection set at 128.5 at SI Sportsbook. Midweek, this number stood at 124.5 and following strong respected steam, oddsmakers have raised the total by four yards. Over the last three games, Kamara has posted 118 total yards at New England, 120 against the Giants and 122 at Washington. The Seahawks have already allowed Najee Harris to post 127 total yards in Week 6, Alexander Mattison 171 in Week 4, Derrick Henry 237 in Week 3 and Jonathan Taylor 116 in Week 2. Backing over 128.5 rushing plus receiving yards on Monday Night Football is a solid investment. The Seattle defense is allowing the third-most rushing yards per game in the NFL at 140.8, lending credence to a big night on the ground for Kamara in Week 7.

Frankie's Monday Night Football Play

Despite being at home in front of the 12th Man, there simply is no way to trust Seattle without two of its most important offensive weapons in Wilson and Carson. Dating back to the playoffs last season, the Seahawks have lost three straight home games both SU and ATS. Ending that drought will not be an easy task with Geno Smith, who is 12-19 in his career as a starter, against Jameis Winston, who has been solid thus far this season guiding the Saints offense via a solid 12-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

BET: UNDER 42.5 (-110)

SI PROP BETS:

Alex Collins, RB, Seahawks: OVER 40.5 Rushing Yards

Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints: OVER 128.5 Rush + Rec Yards

SI BET REVIEW

2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 3-2 ATS / Props 5-4 +1.95 units

2021 SI Betting NFL Football YTD: 15-11 ATS & Props +5.75 units

2020 SI Betting NFL Football: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)

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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.