Blue Jays-Guardians, Tigers-Astros, Rockies-Diamondbacks Plus-Money Bets
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It’s a beautiful day for some baseball! Let’s get in on the action.
We are off to a 13-4 start to the season–and 12 of those wins paid plus-money.
You can also follow my picks on SharpRank throughout the season. Accountability is key, and SharpRank keeps a record of all picks alongside our current rankings among other betting professionals.
Let’s stick with all plus-money bets today. No juice!
Ron Schwane/AP
Toronto Blue Jays (16-11) vs. Cleveland Guardians (12-13)
- Moneyline: Blue Jays (-143 | Guardians (+120)
- Spread: Blue Jays -1.5 (+130) | Guardians +1.5 (-154)
- Total: 6.5 Over (-133 | Under (+110)
The Jays will try to get back in the W column Friday after losing to the Guardians, 6-5, in Cleveland on Thursday night. I imagine this will be another close one with Kevin Gausman (2-1, 2.27 ERA), who has been excellent, taking the mound for the Jays. Gausman has yet to surrender a home run or a walk in 31 2/3 innings this season.
The Guardians are sending Shane Bieber (1-1, 2.45) to the mound, who has been good but surrendered three home runs across his past two games. All three of those homers came against right-handed batters.
The Jays are .227 across the last week and averaging four runs per game. Conversely, the Guardians have been averaging 5.1 runs per game and batting .258.
Sure, the Jays faced off with the Yankees earlier this week but they just don’t look quite right. I imagine this will be a low-scoring affair.
Players to watch:
Vlad Guerrero Jr. continues to crush the ball and has an OPS of .999 vs. right-handed pitchers.
Gausman is striking batters out at a rate of 11.65 per nine innings but the Guardians have the sixth-lowest K rate in the league.
Steven Kwan launched his first career homer Thursday versus the Jays, and he has hit safely in each of the last five games. He’s batting .328 and .370 vs. righties.
Bet: Guardians moneyline (+120 )
With the Guardians at home and the way the Jays have been hitting lately, I am gambling on the underdogs. Does it make sense on paper? Maybe not. But, in what is expected to be a close game and heavy juice on the Jays, I’m backing the Biebs.
Michael Wyke/AP
Detroit Tigers (8-16) vs. Houston Astros (15-11)
- Moneyline: Tigers (+175) | Astros (-213)
- Spread: Tigers +1.5 (-125) | Astros -1.5 (+105)
- Total: 8.5 Under (-118) | Over (+100)
The Astros have finally gotten back on track, winning eight of their last ten, and square off at home Friday versus the Tigers, losers of eight of their last ten.
The Tigers start Beau Brieske (0-1, 3.60) and if you just asked, “Who?”.... exactly. Brieske has two five-inning starts under his belt, and has pitched to a 3.60 ERA that looks good on the surface. However, Brieske has surrendered an average of 2.7 home runs, 3.9 walks, and only 5.4 strikeouts per nine innings.
Facing a home Astros team with the ninth-best walk rate and the tenth-lowest strikeout rate is not a recipe for success. The Tigers have scored an average of 3.08 runs per game this season, only slightly higher than the lowest-scoring Royals.
The Astros send Luis Garcia (1-1, 4.15) to the bump, who has an expected ERA of 3.44 according to Statcast. He has been extremely unlucky to start the season, but now faces a Tigers lineup that striking out at the eighth-highest rate in the league.
Players to watch:
Yordan Alvarez has hit four home runs in the past week of games. He’s crushing the ball harder and at a higher rate than Guerrero.
Jose Altuve has homered twice since returning from the IL on Monday. His walk rate is in the top eight % of the league, and he should be batting leadoff again Friday.
Akil Badoo has three doubles verus Luis Gracia in only four career plate appearances.
Bet: Astros -1.5 (+105)
Both bullpens should be strong, but the edge goes to the Astros at home. They should win by a margin of two or more runs. Let’s turn this into plus-money on the run line.
David Zalubowski/AP
Colorado Rockies (15-10) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (13-13)
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks (-150) | Rockies (+125)
- Spread: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+140) | Rockies +1.5 (-167)
- Total: 8.5-Over (-118) | Under (+100)
Merrill Kelly (2-1, 1.27) has been one of the better pitchers in baseball and starts for the D-backs on Friday. He doesn’t throw hard, and he doesn’t strike men out, but he has limited hard-contact enough to keep his ERA to 1.27 across 28 1/3 innings.
The Rockies send Chad Kuhl (3-0, 1.90) to the mound, who has also been very good across 23 2/3 innings. Similar to Kelly, Kuhl does not have overpowering stuff, and does not log a lot of strikeouts, but he doesn’t allow many hard-hit balls.
The Diamondbacks are scoring an average of 3.5 runs per game and batting .191 (league-lowest), while the Rockies are batting .263 (league-best) and have scored an average of 4.80 runs per game (third-best). Now, sure, the Rockies have a better hitters park, but they also have a better record than the Diamondbacks.
Players to watch:
CJ Cron has nine homers and is batting .313 with a 1.033 OPS.
Christian Walker is crushing the ball and leads the D-backs with six homers.
BETS: Rockies moneyline (+125); Under 8.5 (+100)
Kelly has yet to surrender a home run this year, and Kuhl has only surrendered two. I expect this to be a low-scoring affair, though both bullpens are prone to blow up.
The Rockies have Cron, who is tied for the league-lead with nine home runs, and they don’t strike out. The D-backs strikeout at a 25.6% clip and don’t have any superstar hitters. Give me the visiting team in a close one.
