2022-23 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Odds and Betting Primer
Marcus Smart became the first guard to win Defensive Player of the Year this century when voters selected him as the 2021-22 recipient over Mikal Bridges and Rudy Gobert. Gary Payton had been the last guard to win in 1996.
Historically speaking, this is a big man award and this year’s odds certainly say as much. Gobert, a three-time winner, is the runaway favorite. The tier behind him includes big men in Robert Williams and Bam Adebayo and three one-time winners in Giannis Antetokounmpo, Draymond Green and Smart.
That’s three centers, two forwards and a guard who make up the six players with the best odds. So, will it be Gobert who captures the award for the fourth time with a new team? A first-time winner like Williams or Adebayo? Or a repeat winner like Antetokounmpo or perhaps even Smart?
Bet on NBA Defensive Player of the Year at SI Sportsbook
Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports
Rudy Gobert +450
Robert Williams +700
Bam Adebayo +700
Giannis Antetokounmpo +800
Draymond Green +900
Marcus Smart +1000
Anthony Davis +1200
Mikal Bridges +1200
Joel Embiid +1800
Myles Turner +2200
Ben Simmons +2200
Jrue Holiday +2200
Kawhi Leonard +2200
Evan Mobley +2500
Jarrett Allen +2800
Jaren Jackson Jr +2800
The Favorite: Rudy Gobert, Timberwolves (+450)
Gobert had perhaps the best overall season of his career in 2021-22. His 15.7 PPG and 14.7 RPG set new career highs and the latter lead the league. He also made his fourth All-NBA team and third All-Star team in his final season in Utah, but his defensive counting and advanced stats were down by his astronomical standards.
Going by defensive win shares, an estimate of the number of wins a player contributed to on defense and defensive box plus/minus, another estimate of defensive impact, Gobert’s numbers were down compared to the previous year when he won DPOY. The Jazz took a step back as a whole from the No. 3 team in the league by defensive rating to No. 10. That’s no fault of Gobert, who was the failsafe for a team ill-equipped to defend the perimeter, which put even more pressure on Gobert when guards easily penetrated into the paint.
In Minnesota, Gobert will be aided by the presence of another big, Karl-Anthony Towns, who’s no defensive ace but is at least another big body capable of deterring opponents’ shots. Gobert will also play alongside other plus defenders, like Kyle Anderson and Jaden McDaniels, who will both contribute to what should be a marked improvement in the T-Wolves’ middling defensive rating. Gobert should and will get credit for that bump and it might come in the form of another addition to his trophy case.
Value Bet: Mikal Bridges, Suns (+1200)
Bridges started all 82 games last season and his active hands piloted Phoenix to the No. 3 defensive rating. He set a new career high in defensive win shares, made the All-Defensive First Team and finished as the runner up to Smart for DPOY. It’s confounding that he’s tied for the seventh-best odds.
Last season, according to NBA.com tracking data, Bridges defended the most shots in the league in the paint, from mid-range and above the break threes and he held opponents to less than 33% on above the break threes, less than 41% in the mid-range and less than 45% on shots in the paint. With a Jae Crowder trade looming, Bridges’ role as the Suns’ top perimeter defender will be even more important.
It will take a herculean effort from Bridges for Phoenix to repeat as a top-five defensive unit. And for him to beat out the likes of Gobert and Giannis, his counting stats will have to take a leap. Smart swiped 1.7 passes on average last season, which would be a career-high for Bridges. That he finished second in voting (and earned 22 first-place votes to Smart’s 37) and has such relatively long odds make Bridges perhaps the best value bet available.
Long Shot: Evan Mobley, Cavaliers (+2500)
Evan Mobley helped anchor one of the NBA’s top defenses as a rookie. After Jarrett Allen fractured his finger, it was entirely on the first-year forward to hold down the front court and he more than held his own. Mobley ranked eighth in blocked shots per game (1.7), tied for eighth in defensive win shares and finished 19th in defensive box plus/minus. Just imagine what he can do with a Year 2 leap.
Playing alongside Allen, another big presence who cleans up plenty of rebounds and helps deter shots, is an advantage for Mobley, and Allen ranks just behind him in DPOY odds. Mobley’s versatility and shot blocking—he swatted neatly three shots per game at USC—make him a good long shot bet to win the award in his second season.
A lot of this hinges on Cleveland’s ability to repeat as a top-five defensive unit. With a full season of Mobley, Allen and forward Isaac Okoro that’s certainly doable, though the recently acquired Donovan Mitchell didn’t do Gobert any favors on that side of the ball when he was in Utah.
BET: Mikal Bridges, Suns (+1200)
I was tempted to go with Antetokounmpo, but Bridges’ odds are what sold me. Phoenix will need him to be every bit the player he was last season and perhaps a little more if Crowder indeed gets dealt. And thankfully he’s not entirely on an island as Cameron Johnson is another capable wing defender the Suns can throw at opponents. Bridges will likely need flashier counting stats to beat out the big men for the hardware, and with his wingspan he’s fully capable of jumping a few more passing lanes, swatting some additional shots and stealing the trophy.
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