NBA Western Conference Team Over/Under Betting Primer
As per usual, the NBA offseason shook up the league's landscape.
Trades, pending returns from injury, new injuries that popped up, free agent signings and coaching changes all contributed to how each team's regular-season outlook changed over the summer, some more than others.
There's somewhat clear tiers of contenders, playoff teams, playoff hopefuls and teams simply looking forward to the draft in the spring.
Ahead of the season opener on Oct. 18, SI Sportsbook has over/under projections for the 2022-23 campaign, among other futures odds.
SI Betting broke down each team’s situation and picked over or under for each of the 30 NBA teams’ win totals. Here are the Western Conference teams.
You can check the Eastern Conference breakdown here.
Bet on NBA Over/Under Win Totals at SI Sportsbook
Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports
Phoenix Suns: 53.5 — Over (+100) | Under (-133)
Basketball-wise, the Suns are largely the same team that just rattled off a league-best 64 wins. Devin Booker inked a supermax extension, Chris Paul is back for his 18th season and the front office retained Deandre Ayton. Still, the vibes in the Valley are off. Technically Phoenix did bring Ayton back, but it made things awkward by opting to match the Pacers’ offer rather than outright extending the former No. 1 pick and the team is working to trade Jae Crowder. Beyond the matter of the sale of the team, there’s lingering effects of the epic playoff collapse against the Mavericks and the struggles against the Pelicans the round prior. Taking the under would imply more than a 10-win regression from last year and this team isn’t nearly that far gone. The Suns remain one of the better rosters in the association and are fully capable of racking up regular-season victories, but keep an eye out for another solar implosion come playoff time.
BET: Over 53.5 wins (+100)
Los Angeles Clippers: 52.5 — Over (-118) | Under (-118)
The Clippers’ championship odds are high for a team that outright missed the postseason last season, but that’s how much weight the return of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George carries. Leonard hasn’t played since the 2021 postseason and George appeared in just 31 games last season for a deep, veteran-laden team that fought its way to the play-in and came just short of making the playoffs. The singular greatness of those two forwards, along with the addition of John Wall and Tyron Lue’s coaching expertise, is why L.A.'s title odds are so short. However, the Big 3’s struggles to stay on the court with any level of consistency, whether due to injury or load management, has me doubting their ability to pile up the most wins for the franchise since the Lob City days.
BET: Under 52.5 wins (-118)
Golden State Warriors: 52.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-125)
Steve Kerr believes the Warriors will be even better this season in their title defense and that’s difficult to dispute. Golden State enters the season with a healthy Klay Thompson and James Wiseman, as well as an improved Jordan Poole, fresh off a stellar postseason. The Dubs did lose a few pieces from their championship roster, but they brought in Donte DiVinencenzo and JaMychal Green to offset the departures of Gary Payton II and Otto Porter Jr. Steph Curry’s Warriors are the rightful favorites to come out of the West after a 53-win season. They can surely clear their projected win total once again with a healthy roster.
BET: Over 52.5 wins (-110)
Denver Nuggets: 50.5 — Over (-120) | Under (-110)
The back-to-back MVP is getting reinforcements. Nikola Jokic dragged the Nuggets to the postseason with no Jamal Murray and just nine games out of Michael Porter Jr. Now, the All-Star guard and sharpshooting forward come back to a deep Nuggets team to offer some relief for Jokic, who led the team in every major counting stat last year. Denver just racked up 48 wins; the return of their stars along with the additions of Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are certainly worth three—or more—extra victories on their total.
BET: Over 50.5 wins (-120)
Memphis Grizzlies: 48.5 — Over (-133) | Under (-105)
The Grizzlies matched their most wins in franchise history last season and came out of nowhere to snatch the 2-seed in the West. Ja Morant and Memphis proved their doubters wrong across their surprise 56-win season and into the playoffs. Now, they have to do it again and without Jaren Jackson Jr. (foot) for the start of the year. Luckily, Taylor Jenkins’ squad is plenty deep and has been able to withstand injuries to stars like Jackson and Morant with capable backups slotting in behind them. Last season was no fluke—50 wins feels like the floor
BET: Over 48.5 wins (-133)
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Dallas Mavericks: 48.5 — Over (-118) | Under (-118)
Luka Doncic willed the Mavericks to 52 wins and a top-four seed in the West last season. When he was out, it was Jalen Brunson who stepped up during a deep playoff run. Doncic’s running mate departed for New York in the offseason, which puts more pressure on the MVP favorite. Dallas traded for Christian Wood, signed Javale McGee and Tim Hardaway Jr. returns from injury, so the Mavericks have ways to offset the loss of Brunson. This is also Spencer Dinwiddie’s first full season with the team and he’ll step right into Brunson’s role. As long as Jason Kidd’s team keeps up its defensive identity and Doncic continues his First Team All-NBA level of play, the Mavericks aren’t taking a step back.
BET: Over 48.5 wins (-118)
Minnesota Timberwolves: 47.5 — Over (-133) | Under (+100)
The Timberwolves were mocked when they celebrated their play-in victory like a Super Bowl win. This team might have more to celebrate this coming year, and already scored a big offseason win with the acquisition of three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert. Chris Finch piloted the T-Wolves to the playoffs in his first full season as coach and now has the pieces in place to improve a lackluster defense to pair with a league-leading offense. Minnesota gave up a lot to get its All-Star center, but the roster holdovers are All-Star caliber: Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell. This team is built to win now—whether or not it can remains to be seen, but the regular season will be fruitful for a team that totaled 46 wins last year to end its playoff drought.
BET: Over 47.5 WINS (-133)
Los Angeles Lakers: 45.5 — Over (-120) | Under (-120)
The Lakers were the most disappointing team in basketball last season. Two years removed from winning a ring, they failed to crack the play-in tournament. Of course, that can be chalked up to dozens of missed games from the players who matter most: LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The All-Star duo played a combined 96 games, the Russell Westbrook experiment was a failure, L.A.’s defense was horrible and Frank Vogel was fired. Unable to move Westbrook so far, the Lakers are essentially running it back—Lonnie Walker IV, Dennis Schroeder and Patrick Beverly were their big-name free agent adds—in hopes of healthier seasons from Davis and 37-year-old James with new coach Darvin Ham calling the shots. A play-in appearance is well within reach, but there are quite a few teams out West with better constructed roster than the Lakers.
BET: Under 45.5 wins (-110)
New Orleans Pelicans: 43.5 — Over (-133) | Under (+100)
The Pelicans became the darlings of the playoffs by pushing the Suns to six games. Imagine when this team gets Zion Williamson back! Well, the former No. 1 pick, who missed all of last season, signed a max deal in the offseason and returns to an exciting team in the Big Easy. Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum provided plenty of scoring, Herb Jones wowed on defense as a rookie and Jonas Valanciunas cleaned up down low during a march to the postseason in Willie Green’s first year as coach. This team needs a star, though, and it has one in Williamson. Expectations are higher after a 36-win campaign, but this team hasn’t gone .500 or better in five years. That changes this season.
BET: Over 43.5 wins (-133)
Portland Trail Blazers: 39.5 — Over (-125) | Under (-110)
It was unclear which direction the Trail Blazers were going after Damian Lillard missed most of last season. Trading McCollum was a sign the tank was on, though Portland got back Josh Hart, a solid role player, in the deal. Then, the front office traded for Jerami Grant, re-signed Anfernee Simons and Jusuf Nurkic and plucked Payton away from the Warriors to improve its porous defense. The selection of Shaedon Sharpe, a raw prospect who didn’t play at Kentucky, was made with the future in mind, but it’s clear this team is set up to return to the playoffs in coach Chauncey Billups’s second season, and it’ll take more than 40 wins to guarantee Portland at least an advantageous spot in the play-in tournament.
BET: Over 39.5 wins (-125)
Sacramento Kings: 33.5 — Over (-133) | Under (+105)
The Kings’ trade for Domantas Sabonis did not end their playoff drought last season, which, thanks to the Mariners punching their postseason ticket, is now the longest across the major North American sports. This might be the year Sacramento at least sniffs the play-in tournament after it drafted NBA-ready Keegan Murray out of Iowa with the fourth pick, traded for Kevin Huerter and signed Malik Monk. The Kings also have yet another new coach with Mike Brown coming over from the Warriors. A full season of De’Aaron Fox and Sabonis gives Sacramento its best chance of getting out of the doldrums of the NBA and into the playoff picture, so long as its defense takes a step forward.
BET: Over 33.5 wins (-133)
Utah Jazz: 25.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-125)
Utah’s offseason moves revealed, in the infamous words of Brian Windhorst, why the Jazz did that. The teardown, which was tipped off by the Royce O’Neal deal, soon gave way to the monumental Gobert trade and continued when Donovan Mitchell was sent to the Cavaliers later in the summer. The franchise’s cornerstones are gone in exchange for a haul of picks and players and there are still veterans of value in Salt Lake City who could come available as the season wears on. After six playoff appearances in a row, Utah’s rebuild is in full swing. Wins will be few and far between this season in Will Hardy’s first year at the helm.
BET: Under 25.5 wins (-125)
Houston Rockets: 23.5 — Over (-133) | Under (-105)
The Rockets had the NBA’s worst defense and worst record last season. Their reward for going 20-62 was Jabari Smith Jr., who was projected to go No. 1 before the draft and landed with the Rockets two picks later. Post-James Harden Houston has been the NBA’s worst team by a considerable margin and the front office dealt last season’s leading scorer and rebounder, Wood, to Dallas. There’s undoubtedly talent in place, but this team is a long way from making meaningful strides toward winning basketball. Eric Gordon could also be dealt to a contender at some point, which would strip this roster of a veteran knockdown shooter.
BET: Under 23.5 wins (-105)
Oklahoma City Thunder: 23.5 — Over (-120) | Under (-120)
Few teams have tanked as masterfully as the Thunder and there may be a light at the end of the tunnel approaching. The 2023 draft has a 7’4” prize for the winner of the lottery who could mark the end of the Thunder’s asset accumulation if French phenom Victor Wembanyama winds up on Sam Presti’s squad. Ping pong balls aside, this team will be without No. 2 pick Chet Holmgren this season after he suffered a Lisfranc injury. OKC re-signed Lu Dort and also drafted Ousmane Dieng, Jalen Williams and Jaylin Williams—all good moves, but not enough to push the Thunder, coming off a 24-win season, into any sort of immediate play-in push, especially if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ends up playing less than a full season again.
BET: Under 23.5 wins (-120)
San Antonio Spurs: 22.5 — Over (-133) | Under (+100)
The Spurs are finally rebuilding. San Antonio dealt Dejounte Murray early in the offseason, let Walker walk in free agency and traded away Derrick White at the deadline last year. Greg Popovich already advised people against betting on his team to win the title, and it’s entirely likely the Spurs win their fewest games since he took over as coach in the 1996-97 season (they won 34 last year and appeared in the play-in tournament). San Antonio has no misconceptions about the dearth of top-end talent and experience on this roster. This is the lowest projected win total in the league, yet that won’t scare me off the under.
BET: Under 22.5 wins (+100)
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