2025-26 NBA MVP Odds: Nikola Jokic Opens as Favorite Ahead of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic

Breaking down the odds to win the NBA MVP award in the 2025-26 season.

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is the favorite to win the NBA MVP. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

The NBA MVP award has been Nikola Jokic’s to lose in recent seasons, and the Denver Nuggets big man is favored in the odds for the 2025-26 season. 

There are four players at shorter than 10/1 odds to win the MVP, and only six players have 20/1 odds or less entering the campaign – a sign that oddsmakers expect one of the top candidates to emerge as a favorite as the season goes on.

Betting on the NBA MVP is tough once the season starts, as ESPN’s Tim Bontemps runs a straw poll of MVP voters every single season that swings the odds, but it also leaves very little value once the campaign gets under way.

This season, Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic are the clear favorites in this market, very similar to the 2024-25 season when SGA won his first MVP award.

Can the Oklahoma City Thunder star go back-to-back? 

I have some interesting trends for bettors to watch when making their preseason MVP picks, as well as a breakdown for each of the leading candidates in the 2025-26 season. 

NBA MVP Odds for 2025-26 Season

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Nikola Jokic: +220
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: +250
• Luka Doncic: +380
• Giannis Antetokounmpo: +950
• Victor Wembanyama: +1800
• Anthony Edwards: +2000
• Kevin Durant: +4500
• Jalen Brunson: +5000
• Cade Cunningham: +5000
• Paolo Banchero: +7000
• Joel Embiid: +10000
• Donovan Mitchell: +10000
• Jaylen Brown: +10000
• Anthony Davis: +10000
• Trae Young: +10000
• Zion Williamson: +10000
• Ja Morant: +12000
• LeBron James: +15000
• Steph Curry: +15000
• Devin Booker: +18000

NBA MVP Betting Trends to Know

If you’re betting on the NBA MVP, there are three trends that you need to know to help you make some preseason predictions. 

Only four league MVPs have played less than 70 games since the 1977-78 season

• Joel Embiid in the 2022-23 season
• Giannis Antetokounmpo in the 2019-20 season (shortened because of COVID-19)
• LeBron James in the 2011-12 season (shortened because of NBA lockout)
• Karl Malone in the 1998-99 season (shortened because of NBA lockout)

So, even if a player reaches the 65-game threshold needed to win MVP, it’s quite possible that they may need to play 70-plus to truly win this award. 

It’s not impossible (Embiid did it a few seasons ago), but he’s the only player in nearly 50 years to do so in a non-shortened season.

There have been seven back-to-back MVPs since 2000

• Tim Duncan, LeBron James (twice), Steve Nash, Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic have all won back-to-back MVP awards.

The MVP almost always plays on a team in the top three of its respective conference

• Since 1983, only Russell Westbrook (2016-17) and Jokic (2021-22) have won an MVP without being a top-three seed. They were both the No. 6 seed. 
• So, when betting on this market, we’re not only looking for a player that is going to put up big numbers, but we also want someone with a path to a top seed in their conference.

NBA MVP Predictions and Picks for 2025-26 Season

I’ll be sharing my full MVP betting card later this month in my Peter’s Points column – where I pick over 20 futures every NBA season – but the top four players in the market this season all have a compelling case to win MVP. 

Nikola Jokic (+220)

Jokic finished second in the MVP voting in the 2024-25 season, and he’s either won the award or finished second in each of the last five seasons. So, if you’re betting on this market, you might as well put a wager on Jokic. 

The superstar center averaged a triple-double in the 2024-25 season, averaging career-highs in points (29.6), rebounds (12.7) and assists (10.2) per game. It was a magnificent season, and it’s shocking that he didn’t win the MVP.

However, OKC was so dominant record wise, that it helped propel SGA’s case to win his first MVP. Plus, Jokic finished with the Nuggets as the No. 4 seed, putting outside the top three in the conference, which has traditionally been a key trend for MVP winners.

This season, Denver should be much better with Aaron Gordon hopefully healthier and the additions of Cam Johnson, Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jonas Valanciunas.

Jokic may not have to score as much for Denver to win on a nightly basis, but he could see his assist numbers go up with an improved supporting cast.

Plus, Jokic’s biggest MVP always comes in Denver’s numbers when he’s on the floor versus when he’s on the bench. Last season, Denver was +10.5 points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the court and -8.5 points per 100 possessions when he was off.

He has an on/off net rating (per 100 possessions) of +16.4 or higher in each of the last four seasons. 

Unless Denver takes a step back in the standings, I expect Jokic to win his fourth MVP in the 2025-26 season. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+250)

SGA had a historic season in the 2024-25 campaign, putting together one of the best individual seasons for a guard ever while finishing ahead of Jokic in both Win Shares and eRAPTOR WAR. 

The case for SGA in the 2025-26 season will be simple. If OKC builds on the success of last season and he wins another scoring title, he’ll be right back in the mix to win MVP. 

However, I do think it's going to be hard for SGA to be as valuable to the Thunder as he was last season. OKC should have a little more health with Chet Holmgren (missed most of the 2024-25 regular season) and Isaiah Hartenstein, and the Thunder are widely expected to be the best team in the NBA once again this season.

It’s tough to build the narrative for SGA, especially if his numbers are similar to or worse than Jokic and Luka Doncic. 

Luka Doncic (+380)

Speaking of Luka, he may be the best bet in terms of the odds on the board for a player that can win this award.

Doncic is going to need to reach the 65-game threshold – he didn’t last season – but he had an insane 2023-24 season and may have been overlooked to win MVP since Dallas finished outside of the top three in the Western Conference (the Mavs went on to make the Finals). 

Now, he has his first full season with the Los Angeles Lakers, who were the No. 3 seed in the West last season even without Luka for the majority of the campaign. With LeBron James out to start the season, Luka could build a real MVP case pretty quickly by putting up gaudy numbers while leading L.A. to a hot start.

It feels like Doncic is destined to win an MVP sooner rather than later, and his new commitment to fitness in the offseason is a positive sign for his long-term health and his potential numbers this season.

After all, we’re looking at a player that averages 28.6 points, 8.6 rebounds and 8.2 assists per game for his career. A bounce-back season would paint a nice narrative in an award market that has had voter fatigue in previous years. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo (+950)

Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo is a bit more of a long shot in this market, but I can build the case for him pretty easily – it’s just a question of whether or not it comes to fruition.

Giannis is coming off a season where he averaged 30.4 points, 11.9 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game while shooting over 60 percent from the field. With Damian Lillard gone, many are expecting the Bucks to be in the play-in mix in the East, but what if they jump into the top four? 

Giannis would have to be the driving force of that with this team lacking talent, and he’s finished in the top four in the MVP voting in seven years in a row. 

He and Jokic may have the highest floors when it comes to making an MVP case, and if the Bucks end up in the mix for home court in the playoffs, there’s no doubt that he should be in consideration for this award.

Plus, without Lillard, there’s a chance Antetokounmpo’s points and assists per game go up since he’ll likely have even more ball-handling duties in the 2025-26 season. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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