2025 Belmont Stakes Prediction, Longshot, Trifecta Picks (How to Bet Final Triple Crown Race)

Sean Treppedi | Jun 5, 2025

Crudo presents worthwhile longshot value in the 2025 Belmont stakes. / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

The Belmont Stakes are around the corner and there’s plenty of drama on tap. 

The third jewel of the Triple Crown features both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness champions in Sovereignty and Journalism, respectively, who are the two favored horses. 

Let’s look at how they stack up in the field on Saturday and dive into a best bet to win, longshot pick and a trifecta if you’re looking to get creative. 

Belmont Stakes Odds

Odds via FanDuel Racing

• 7. Journalism +160
• 2. Sovereignty +200
• 6. Baeza +400
• 3. Rodriguez +600
• 5. Crudo +1500
• 1. Hill Road +1000
• 4. Uncaged +3000
• 8. Heart of Honor +3000

2025 Belmont Stakes Prediction

I gave insight as to why I like Sovereignty to win in my Belmont Stakes prediction earlier this week. Even if it’s a shorter distance than usual at Saratoga and he’s successful coming off the pace, Sovereignty has been training at Saratoga since his Kentucky Derby win and his versatile running style and strong pedigree make a strong pick that has some value over Journalism.

2025 Belmont Stakes Dark Horse

I like Crudo as a live long shot because he is well-suited for the pace of this race. He’s only run three times (all this year), but has two wins. Cruso is making his graded-stakes debut in the Belmont Stakes after winning the Sir Barton on Preakness weekend by 7 ½ lengths, so I see lots of upside here. The only time that path to a Belmont victory was successfully forged was Sarava in 2002. The son of Justify broke his maiden at Keeneland and has been training at Saratoga ever since. Trainer Todd Pletcher, who has won the Belmont four times, will look to add another title with Crudo along with two-time winning Hall of Famer jockey John Velasquez.

Crudo is an early speed horse. He drew post No. 5 for the Belmont, giving him a tactical edge by starting outside the only other speed horse, Rodriguez. This setup lets Velazquez press the pace or take the lead — a trip he has mastered throughout his career.

Longshot pick: Crudo +1500

2025 Belmont Stakes Trifecta Bet

With straight trifectas, I like to look at horses that have a history in showing over any other factor. The winner of the Belmont is likely to come down to the top three finishers in the Kentucky Derby, which were Sovereignty, Journalism and Baeza. 

This is chalky, but I’m keeping my first-place prediction consistent. Sovereignty has the closing abilities and enters the Belmont Stakes well-rested. Kentucky Derby third place finisher Baeza has the pedigree to suggest that he can handle the 1-¼ mile distance here, and his stamina positions him to pounce early on the pace. He charged down the stretch at the Kentucky Derby from post-position 19 and finished just behind Journalism, who also beat him by less than length in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. He gets a better post position here, so I like him to finally conquer Belmont-favorite Journalism.

I’m expecting frontrunners Rodriguez or Crudo to jump out of the gate with an early lead in a speed battle, which tees up closers like Sovereignty and co. in the later furlongs. 

Trifecta pick: 1st - Sovereignty, 2nd - Baeza, 3rd - Journalism

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