2025 British Open First-Round Leader Odds and Prediction

Marco Penge has everything you want in a first-round leader bet.

Bet Marco Penge to be the first round leader at the 2025 British Open. / Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

We’re less than 24 hours away from the opening tee shot at the 2025 British Open, so if you live in North America like me, be sure to place all your bets before you go to sleep Wednesday night.

Remember, not every bet has to be a full tournament wager. If you want to make the Thursday opening round a little more exciting, consider placing a first-round leader bet. All you need for this bet to cash is for the golfer you wager on to be in the lead at the end of Thursday’s action.

First-round leader bets are also a chance to get in on longer odds for one of the top golfers in the field, or it gives a long shot golfer you like a chance to cash a bet for you without having to win the entire event, which would be a much larger ask. Let’s try to capitalize on the variance the opening round presents.

British Open first-round leader odds

Top 15 first round leader odds via DraftKings

• Scottie Scheffler +1600
• Rory McIlroy +2000
• Jon Rahm +2500
• Bryson DeChambeau +3000
• Ludvig Aberg +3500
• Xander Schauffele +3500
• Viktor Hovland +3500
• Shane Lowry +4000
• Tyrrell Hatton +4000
• Tommy Fleetwood +4500
• Collin Morikawa +4500
• Robert MacIntyre +4500
• Justin Thomas +5000
• Jordan Spieth +5000
• Joaquin Niemann +5500

British Open first-round leader prediction

The first thing we want to look at when predicting the first-round leader at the British Open is the weather. Most golf tournaments, including the PGA Championship and U.S. Open, start on both No. 1 and No. 10 tees in two waves, but the British Open, like the Masters, sends everyone off the first tee. That means there could be significant differences in weather by the time Padraig Harrington hits his opening tee shot at 6:35 a.m. local time and when Rory McIlroy tees off for his opening round at 3:10 p.m. local time.

According to available weather forecasts, conditions will be easier in the morning with slightly milder winds, increasing throughout the day. That could lead to someone in one of the early groups setting the bar as the low score of the day.

There’s one golfer who is scheduled to tee off in the third group at 6:57 a.m. local time that sticks out to me. That golfer is Marco Penge from England. Penge was a popular dark horse bet at last week’s Scottish Open and he lived up to expectations, finishing T2.

I’m hoping he can translate that momentum into a strong start at Royal Portrush. He’s been one of the best golfers on the DP World Tour this season and also included a solid T28 finish at the PGA Championship.

Penge is also seventh in the field in true strokes gained in opening rounds of tournaments over the past three months at +2.48. So, not only does he have the beneficial early tee time, but his recent form is up there with the best golfers in the world, especially on Thursdays.

At 80-1, he's my pick to be the leader at the end of opening round of the British Open.

Pick: Marco Penge +8000 via DraftKings

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!