2025 Heisman Trophy Odds Entering College Football Week 1 (Are Arch Manning's Odds Based on Merit?)

Sean Treppedi | Aug 25, 2025

Arch Manning’s +700 odds for the Heisman are driven more by Texas’ title hype and his family name than proven production, making him a narrative play rather than a true value bet. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Week 1 Heisman board is structured around three tiers: Manning, Klubnik, and Nussmeier as the early favorites; Smith, Beck, Sellers, and the +1800 tier as live dark horses; and the +2500 and longer crowd as potential risers. 

In this stage of betting Heisman futures, it’s more about identifying whose odds can only shorten. 

Arch Manning sits atop the board at +700, and the price reflects equal parts brand and projection. Texas is favored to make a title run, which keeps Manning in prime time all season, but the lack of track record is glaring — 95 pass attempts won’t convince many sharp bettors. His number is already priced like a proven star, which makes the ticket more about narrative and exposure than raw value.

Cade Klubnik at +900 feels like the safer early swing. Clemson’s offense leans entirely on his production, and his 43 total touchdowns in 2024 prove he can stack stats at a playoff-caliber level. If the Tigers plow through the ACC again, the combination of numbers and team wins gives Klubnik the inside lane to eclipse Manning in both voter perception and betting momentum.

Garrett Nussmeier’s candidacy is all about pace. Also at +900, his involvement in LSU’s system allows him to fire at volume, and after a 4,000-yard campaign, his chances hinge on whether the Tigers avoid a midseason SEC stumble. Nussmeier’s ceiling is statistical dominance; the floor is that a few key losses erase the shine, as LSU won’t get the same benefit of the doubt as Texas or Clemson.

Ohio State wideout Jeremiah Smith enters at +1200, and while receivers rarely carry the award, his candidacy has teeth. He already delivered 1,315 yards and 15 touchdowns as a freshman, and with Julian Sayin stepping in at quarterback, Smith will likely be the first read on every drive. Wideouts have cracked the code recently, and Ohio State’s machine is designed to keep him on national TV with double-digit targets.

Carson Beck at +1800 is one of the most interesting transfer pivots in recent memory. Leaving Georgia for Miami puts him in a quarterback-friendly system with softer defensive matchups. His experience — nearly 8,000 passing yards across two seasons — gives him a head start, but the question is whether Miami can win enough to keep him in contention. For bettors, his odds reflect a clear upside path without the media baggage that Manning carries.

LaNorris Sellers, also at +1800, is the dual-threat candidate tailor-made for a breakout. The problem is durability — both his own and the team’s ability to survive the SEC gauntlet. If you’re betting purely on the ceiling, Sellers is the value at this number.

Drew Allar and Ty Simpson, each at +1800, represent the second-tier pocket passers who could leap if their teams exceed expectations. 

The +2000 range brings names like Julian Sayin and Sam Leavitt, both of whom could rise if their programs catch fire. Sayin’s advantage is simply being Ohio State’s quarterback, which historically keeps any starter in the race. Leavitt has the opposite profile — a Pac-12 outlier who would need absurd production to stay relevant in the East-Coast-tilted race. 

Beyond that, the value hunters should keep an eye on Dante Moore or John Mateer at +2500. Both quarterbacks play in systems where volume is king, and a few high-scoring weeks could rocket their numbers into the conversation. History shows mid-season risers often come from this tier, and bettors willing to buy now are banking on lightning in a bottle before the market adjusts.

2025 Heisman Trophy Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Arch Manning (Texas): +700
• Cade Klubnik (Clemson): +900
• Garrett Nussmeier (LSU): +900
• Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State): +1200
• Carson Beck (Miami): +1800
• LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina): +1800
• Drew Allar (Penn State): +1800
• Ty Simpson (Alabama): +1800
• Julian Sayin (Ohio State): +2000
• Sam Leavitt (Arizona State): +2000
• Dante Moore (Oregon): +2500
• John Mateer (Oklahoma): +2500
• Jackson Arnold (Auburn): +2500
• DJ Lagway (Florida): +2500
• Gunner Stockton (Georgia): +2500
• Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame): +3000
• Marcel Reed (Texas A&M): +3500
• Kevin Jennings (SMU): +3500
• Austin Simmons (Ole Miss): +3500
• CJ Carr (Notre Dame): +3500
• Ryan Williams (Alabama): +4000
• Miller Moss (Louisville): +5000
• Fernando Mendoza (Indiana): +5000
• Devon Dampier (Utah): +5000
• Bryce Underwood (Michigan): +5000
• Dylan Raiola (Nebraska): +6500
• Demond Williams Jr. (Washington): +6500
• Haynes King (Georgia Tech): +6500
• Avery Johnson (Kansas State): +6500
• Sawyer Robertson (Baylor): +6500

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