2025 March Madness Preview: NCAA Tournament Outlook Using KenPom

Reed Wallach | Mar 11, 2025

Jan 11, 2025; New York, New York, USA; St. John's Red Storm head coach Rick Pitino greets guard RJ Luis Jr. (12) as he comes out of the game in the second half against the Villanova Wildcats at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

We have reached the postseason of college basketball. 

For college hoops fans, a season worth of chaos is now condensed into two tournaments for the biggest teams in the country, conference tournaments, which are followed by the NCAA Tournament that starts next week. As we have been tracking for the past two months or so, we are hunting for valuable Futures bets by using historical data. 

For those who are new to this weekly column, here is what I try to do each week. By using KenPom’s data, I’m trying to filter teams out ahead of the NCAA Tournament, finding which teams can be trending up or down and investing in longer prices to build a sound portfolio ahead of the ‘Big Dance.’

Here’s some context and the exercise. 

Over the past two-plus decades, KenPom has become the market maker for college basketball; the website's metrics also help indicate overall team quality. There is the team’s overall adjusted efficiency metric as well as one for offense and defense (among others) that is a catch-all metric for how to rate teams.

Dating back to 2002, all but two teams have been inside KenPom's adjusted offensive and defensive metrics top 20. The teams that win it all are not only elite but are balanced and able to win in different ways more times than not.

The two teams that didn’t are 2014 Connecticut, paced by a sensational run from Shabazz Napier, and 2021 Baylor, who had a mid-season blip that weighed down the team’s overall rating. 

With that in mind, I like to make three groups of teams: a group that fits the mold right now of being top 20 on both offense and defense, a group that is slightly below that, top 40 on both sides of the ball, and a team that is top 20 on one side, but outside the top 50 on the other.

This is a moving target of teams, but there have been some teams firmly entrenched in one of the three tables that I list below, with the top four teams being the most likely title contenders, as well as a team like Kentucky remaining in its spot as a vulnerable high-profile team. 

These numbers change with every game, and teams can continue to play themselves into title-winning criteria with strong play in the upcoming conference tournament while also impacting its seed to a perceived easier path. 

Ahead of conference tournaments in the four major conferences that tip-off on Tuesday, let’s assess the college basketball landscape below. 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on Monday, March 10th

2025 NCAA Tournament Contenders

Team	Record	KenPom Rank	Bracket Matrix Projected Seed	KenPom adjO	KenPom adjD	Title Odds
Duke	28-3	1	1	2	4	+330
Auburn	27-4	2	1	1	14	+380
Houston	27-4	3	1	10	2	+850
Florida	27-4	4	1	3	10	+750

If you go back to last week, I discussed Duke at length and why I agree with the recent market switch between the Blue Devils and the Tigers. 

I believe that Auburn is far more vulnerable than Duke, and that’s only come into further focus with a pair of losses to close out the regular season. 

To me, I believe the Tigers would benefit from an early exit in Nashville this week in the SEC Tournament. For starters, Johni Broome has been dealing with a shoulder injury of late, and the team has been in numerous high-leverage affairs. We are starting to see some signs of fatigue along the roster. 

Over the last five games, Auburn’s suspect defense has continued to slide. While the team’s offense remains as good as any in the country, the team is 86th according to Bart Torvik’s adjusted defensive efficiency. Two numbers stick out for the Tigers in that stretch, ranking 351st in defensive rebounding rate and 349th in opponent free throw rate. 

I think the Tigers can benefit from some extra time off with an early exit from the SEC Tournament. Ironically, by winning the conference tournament, I’d like the team less in the context of the NCAA Tournament. 

2025 NCAA Tournament Dark Horses

Team	Record	KenPom Rank	Bracket Matrix Projected Seed	KenPom adjO	KenPom adjD	Title Odds
Tennessee	25-6	5	2	22	1	+1600
Alabama	24-7	6	2	4	31	+1100
Texas Tech	24-7	7	3	7	27	+3000
Michigan State	26-5	8	2	28	5	+2000
Gonzaga	23-8	9	8	8	35	+5000
Iowa State	23-8	10	4	29	6	+2500
Wisconsin	23-8	12	3	11	33	+5000
Maryland	23-8	13	4	34	9	+4000
Arizona	20-11	16	4	13	29	+5000
Illinois	20-11	18	7	15	30	+8000
Clemson	26-5	19	5	18	21	+6500
Louisville	25-6	23	6	30	19	+10000
UCLA	22-9	25	6	37	15	+10000
Marquette	22-9	26	7	33	22	+15000
Ole Miss	21-10	27	6	27	28	+8000
Oregon	23-8	31	5	35	36	+8000

Throughout this exercise I have been sharing teams I like and don’t like of this bunch. 

It’s a flavor-of-the-month type of thing as I look for sustainability ahead of the NCAA Tournament as I have shared, I like Clemson, Maryland, and Illinois, all for different reasons. All three are one strong stretch of play in their conference tournaments from being 20-20 teams, and their seeding can be interesting ahead of the NCAA Tournament. 

In the table above and below, you will see that several teams are on the No. 2 seed line and No. 3 seed line that I don’t fancy heading into the NCAA Tournament. 

Given that I respect the ratings on the likely No. 1 seeds – Duke, Auburn, Houston, and Florida – I would much prefer that the teams I have Futures on be on the No. 6 seed line or No. 7 seed line, as the path is far easier, in my opinion. 

I have mentioned my disdain for Michigan State’s NCAA Tournament profile as well as other teams in the next group, which are likely to make up the second and third-seed lines. 

Given that I see far more upside for the aforementioned trio I shared below as well as a team like Louisville or Oregon, I may wait to see the bracket and potential path before investing in long shot tickets. 

Of course, Selection Sunday will tell us a lot more about the path for each team, which will change the price on each team, and I’m trying to position myself to pounce on teams that can avoid the top four as long as possible. 

2025 NCAA Tournament Teams to Fade

Team	Record	KenPom Rank	Bracket Matrix Projected Seed	KenPom adjO	KenPom adjD	Title Odds
Kentucky	21-10	11	3	6	56	+4000
Purdue	21-10	14	4	9	53	+8000
St. John's	27-4	15	2	66	3	+2000
Missouri	21-10	20	6	5	74	+6500
Kansas	20-11	21	7	52	8	+6500
BYU	23-8	24	7	12	57	+6500
Michigan	22-9	28	5	51	18	+15000
Baylor	18-13	29	10	17	59	+15000
Mississippi State	20-11	32	8	21	50	+15000
Connecticut	22-9	35	8	14	96	+6500
North Carolina	20-12	37	N/A	20	71	+50000
Arkansas	19-12	40	10	79	17	+15000
New Mexico	25-6	41	9	71	20	+30000
San Diego State	21-8	43	11	105	12	+30000
West Virginia	19-12	51	10	127	13	+50000
Utah State	25-6	53	10	16	143	+50000
UC-Irvine	27-5	65	N/A	169	16	+100000

As noted above, there are several teams on the top three seed lines that I’m interested in fading and hoping that my long shot tickets will end up on. 

Teams like St. John’s and Kentucky have been regularly discussed as fade candidates in the betting market due to their lopsided metrics skewed toward one side of the ball. 

While a team like the Red Storm have been one of the best stories in college basketball this season under Hall of Fame head coach Rick Pitino, I still believe the team is ripe for a March flameout. 

The Red Storm takes three’s at a bottom 25 rate in the country and makes them at an even lower clip, ranking 345th in three-point percentage. However, the team’s defense is undeniable, ranking 23rd in effective field goal percentage allowed and 16th in turnover rate. 

However, the rigors of a six-game NCAA Tournament run set up for different compositions of teams, and if a team can protect the ball against St. John’s and expose the team’s shaky three-point shooting with quality shot making of their own, the Red Storm will have limited paths to coming back. 

The opposite is true for Kentucky, who is elite on offense, regularly flirting with 100 points under first-year head coach Mark Pope, but can’t stop anybody on defense. Kentucky is 18th in effective field goal percentage against the third-hardest strength of schedule in the country, but are among the worst interior defenses in the country, ranking 273rd in two-point field goal percentage allowed. 

There are other teams that have my eye on this list as fade candidates, like Missouri, but more will come to fruition as we get our brackets and see if the right matchups set up for the perceived underdog in the NCAA Tournament. 

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