49ers Win Total Projection for 2025 Season (Can San Francisco Take Advantage of Easier Schedule?)

Sean Treppedi | Jul 2, 2025

With Christian McCaffrey back to full health, the 49ers are projected to win the NFC North and return to making a Super Bowl run. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Everyone in the Bay Area is ready to forget that 2024 happened. The 49ers finished in last place in the NFC West at 6-11. 

It marks the second time in the last six years that the 49ers followed up a Super Bowl appearance with a six-win season. 

Now with Brock Purdy settled into a long-term contract and Christian McCaffrey healthy again, head coach Kyle Shanahan looks to run it back by returning to winning ways. 

Here’s the outlook on the 2025 49ers. 

San Francisco 49ers 2025 Win Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Over 10.5 (-105)
• Under 10.5 (-115)

Health, Soft Schedule Key to 49ers’ Bounce-Back Bid in 2025 After Roster Shakeup

It’s not often a team finishes in last place and then is projected for 10.5 wins and are set as a division favorite and in the conversation to win the Super Bowl, but 2024 was simply a blopper. 

GM John Lynch secured key extensions for both Purdy and linebacker Fred Warner, who are both now among the highest-paid at their positions, but traded away a few major contributors, including Deebo Samuel, Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga, Charvarius Ward and Aaron Banks. 

But the Niners benefit from what is projected to be the easiest schedule in the league this year with manageable matchups in the beginning and end of the campaign. 

McCaffrey’s health is of course key. He was limited to just four games in 2024 with Achilles and knee issues, but reported full offseason recovery and is training at full speed. His presence should restore a potent, multi-dimensional rushing attack that was completely missing last year.

While the division outlook favors a battle with the Rams — with the Niners pegged as favorites at +165 to win the NFC West — their margin for error is slimmer without reinforcements.

Ultimately, the 10.5-win total feels right on the edge. If the Niners can stay healthy, take advantage of a soft schedule and maintain internal continuity, surpassing that mark is well within reach. Though it might be worth taking a wait-and-see approach once the season unfolds and San Francisco’s true floor and ceiling become more apparent; there’s too much ambiguity regarding the roster turnover and reliance on bounce-back health from another-year-older McCaffrey.

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