Ace Bailey 2025 NBA Draft Odds: Rutgers Star Expected to Slide on Draft Night

Breaking down the odds for Ace Bailey's draft spot in the 2025 NBA Draft on Wednesday.

Peter Dewey | Jun 23, 2025

Rutgers Scarlet Knights guard Ace Bailey is a wild card in the latest draft odds. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Arguably, the most polarizing prospect in the 2025 NBA Draft has become Ace Bailey, as he has not worked out for teams in his draft range and has seen his stock fall with just a few days ahead of Wednesday’s draft.

While Bailey is expected to work out for the Philadelphia 76ers this week, he is still beyond VJ Edgecombe in the odds to be drafted third overall. In fact, there’s an argument to be made that Bailey will fall out of the top five, making him one of the players to watch in the betting market on Wednesday night.

Here’s a complete breakdown of the Rutgers wing’s draft odds and the latest intel on where he could land in the first round.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Ace Bailey Odds to be a Top 5 Pick

-185

Based on these odds, Bailey has an implied probability of 64.91 percent to go in the top five, but recent mock drafts suggest that he could fall outside of it.

ESPN’s Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo placed Bailey at the No. 6 spot to Washington in their latest mock draft, citing his interesting predraft process as a reason why:

“Bailey's predraft workout strategy has perplexed some observers, as he has yet to conduct a single known workout to date, having declined invitations from several teams within his draft range,” Givony wrote. “Sources say Bailey's camp has informed interested teams that they believe he is a top-3 player in the draft, but also seeks a clear pathway to stardom, perhaps feeling comfortable that a team will trade up to get him at Nos. 3 or 4, should he drop.”

A trade could help Bailey make good on these -185 odds, but this seems like a lofty price for a player who has better odds to go sixth than he does any other spot in the latest exact pick odds at FanDuel.

“Some teams question whether Bailey has received assurances of being selected by a team currently outside the top five, to a situation deemed more advantageous from a geographic and playing time perspective,” Givony wrote.

“Bailey is scheduled to conduct a workout with the 76ers later this week, but it's unclear if he plans to visit any other teams at this stage. Should the Sixers pass on him, he could very well slide to the No. 6 or No. 7 picks, two teams in Washington and New Orleans that are said to be highly intrigued with the 18-year-old's talent. And both are situations in which there appear to be plenty of minutes and shots to be had.”

Ace Bailey Odds to be a Top 10 Pick

Even if Bailey does fall in the 2025 NBA Draft, and it does seem like he won’t be the No. 3 overall pick based on the latest odds, he isn’t expected to drop out of the top 10.

Since oddsmakers aren’t even offering a price for Bailey to be a top-10 pick, it’s a sign that they expect him to be off the board by then. That’s also evident in his odds to go at each spot on Wednesday in the top eight.

Ace Bailey Exact Pick Odds

No. 1: +20000
No. 2: +3000
No. 3: +440
No. 4: +340
No. 5: +260
No. 6: +240
No. 7: +600
No. 8: +450

These odds are a rollercoaster for the former Rutgers star. Bailey seemingly has a chance to go to the 76ers at No. 3, which could depend on his workout, but he also has the third-best odds to land at No. 8 with the Brooklyn Nets.

For a player with as much talent as Bailey, it’s hard to see a scenario where he would fall outside of the top-10, especially since oddsmakers don’t have any odds for him listed to go at No. 9 or No. 10 in the draft.

He’s certainly the most curious prospect in the draft given his talent, original projection, and current uncertainty around where he will actually fall.

Ace Bailey Odds to be a Top 5 Pick

Ace Bailey Odds to be a Top 10 Pick

Ace Bailey Exact Pick Odds

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