Aces vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds and Best WNBA Prop Bets for Saturday, May 17

The Liberty are favored at home in their season opener.

The Liberty are favored at home in their season opener. / Chris Pietsch/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The defending champion New York Liberty open the 2025 WNBA season at home on Saturday against the Las Vegas Aces and reigning WNBA MVP A’ja Wilson.

New York is essentially running things back in 2025, although it did swap Courtney Vandersloot (now with Chicago) for Natasha Cloud, which may turn out to be an upgrade overall for New York.

Meanwhile, the Aces made a monumental trade in the offseason, acquiring Jewell Loyd in a three-team deal that sent longtime guard Kelsey Plum to the Los Angeles Sparks.

With Loyd in the fold, the Aces have an interesting core of Wilson, Chelsea Gray, Loyd and Jackie Young. Will that be enough to reach the WNBA Finals after a second-round exit last season? 

The Aces will get a real test against the defending champs, who knocked them out of the playoffs in 2024.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my game prediction for Saturday’s season opener.   

Aces vs. Liberty Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Aces +4.5 (-110)
• Liberty -4.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Aces: +160
• Liberty: -192

Total

• 167 (Over -110/Under -110)

Aces vs. Liberty How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, May 17
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Barclays Center
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Aces record: 0-0
• Liberty record: 0-0

Aces vs. Liberty Injury Reports

Aces Injury Report

• Cheyenne Parker-Tyus – out
• Megan Gustafson – out
• Elizabeth Kitley – game-time decision
• Dana Evans – game-time decision

Liberty Injury Report

• Raquel Carrera – out
• Seehia Ridard – out
• Leonie Fiebich – game-time decision

Aces vs. Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bets

Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Sabrina Ionescu UNDER 6.5 Assists (-125)

With Vandersloot no longer in the picture, Sabrina Ionescu is going to have even more playmaking duties in 2025.

The star guard finished last season averaging 6.2 assists per game – her second-highest total of her career – but I think this number is a little too high against Las Vegas. In seven meetings with the Aces last season (including playoffs), Ionescu had just one game with over 6.5 assists. Plus, Cloud should take on some playmaking in this offense as well.

I’ll wait-and-see on Sabrina’s assist totals until we see more of this offense with Sloot no longer in the picture. 

Aces vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

Another battle between the Aces and Liberty is exactly what the WNBA needs to open Saturday’s loaded three-game slate.

And, I can’t fade the defending champs at home where they were 16-4 in the regular season in 2024.

New York has the benefit of continuity on the roster, and while the Loyd addition for the Aces is intriguing, it’ll be interesting to see how she fits along Wilson, Young and Gray.

Plum had understood the pecking order in Las Vegas, but Loyd is coming from a situation where she was the No. 1 scoring option – although she was not efficient last season – in Seattle.

I think there will be some growing pains for the Aces early on – even if they still are one of the more talented teams in the W.

For New York, the addition of Cloud is huge defensively with Betnijah Laney-Hamilton (knee) out for the 2025 season. 

I do think there is a lot of pressure on Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Sabrina Ionescu to score even more without Laney-Hamilton, but the Liberty have essentially the same roster from the last two seasons.

I’d expect them to cover at home on Saturday. 

Pick: Liberty -4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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