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Aces vs. Mercury Prediction and Odds for Friday, August 15

Sean Treppedi

Satou Sabally's offensive boost has proven that the Mercury have one of the game's most balanced attacks.
Satou Sabally's offensive boost has proven that the Mercury have one of the game's most balanced attacks. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
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The Aces enter Friday on a five-game winning streak with a balanced offensive attack led by A’ja Wilson's 22.0 points and 9.8 rebounds per game. 

Phoenix has a 6-4 record over its last ten and is coming off a 74-66 loss to the Atlanta Dream, but are favored by 4.5 points on Friday. The Mercury are still a formidable challenge at home, boasting a +6.3 point differential. 

This matchup carries significant playoff implications, with both teams vying for positioning in the standings as the Dream leads the East by six games and the Mercury looks to create space for second place in the West.

Aces vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

  • Aces +4.5 (-110)
  • Mercury -4.5 (-110)

Moneyline

  • Aces (+164)
  • Mercury (-205)

Total

  • Over 166.5 (-112)
  • Under 166.5 (-108)

Aces vs. Mercury How to Watch

  • Date: Friday August 15, 2025
  • Time: 10 p.m. ET
  • Venue: PHX Arena
  • How to Watch (TV): ION
  • Aces Record: 19-14
  • Mercury Record: 19-12

Aces vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

Alyssa Thomas has been a dual-threat, averaging 16.1 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 9.0 assists per game, anchoring both ends of the floor. Satou Sabally complements her efforts with additional production, contributing 17.0 points per game, while Sami Whitcomb provides perimeter shooting, hitting an average of 2.0 beyond the arc.

Yes, Phoenix can defend as it has the edge in both steals and blocks, with Thomas and Natasha Mack leading the team in these categories. But in contrast, the Aces, despite their recent success, have a negative scoring differential of -22, so there’s vulnerability in close games. Phoenix has the roster depth and home-court advantage to grab at least five points against Vegas in this one and snap their winning streak. 

Pick: Mercury -4.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Published
Sean Treppedi
SEAN TREPPEDI

Sean is a writer for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has written and edited sports betting and sports news editorial for the New York Post, Newsweek, Action Network, Philadelphia Inquirer, Chicago Tribune, and Athlon Sports. Sean lives in the New York City area and primarily focuses on pinpointing market value across the NFL, MLB, NHL, and college football.

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