Aces vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bets for WNBA Finals Game 4

The Aces are favored to pull off the sweep in Game 4 of the WNBA Finals.

Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson is a great prop target in Game 4. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

A’ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces are one win away from capturing their third WNBA title in four seasons, as the league MVP hit a game-winning shot on Wednesday to give the Aces a 3-0 series lead over the Phoenix Mercury.

Las Vegas is now 6-1 against the Mercury in seven meetings this season (including the playoffs) and oddsmakers have decided to set Las Vegas as a road favorite in Game 4 of the Finals on Friday night. 

The Aces’ offense has been on fire in this series, making life tough on a Mercury team that posted one of the five best defensive ratings in the WNBA this season. 

Phoenix would love to send the series back to Las Vegas for Game 5, but after leading for most of Game 1, the Mercury have been thoroughly outplayed, including on their home floor for most of Game 3.

Las Vegas’ offseason acquisition of Jewell Loyd has paid off in a big way in the Finals, and the Mercury simply haven’t had an answer for Wilson.

Will we see a sweep on Friday night? 

Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Game 4.

Aces vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Aces -2 (-110)
• Mercury +2 (-110)

Moneyline

• Aces: -130
• Mercury: +110

Total

• 164 (Over -110/Under -110)

Aces vs. Mercury How to Watch

• Date: Friday, Oct. 10
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Series: Las Vegas leads 3-0

Aces vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Aces Injury Report

• None to report

Mercury Injury Report

• Satou Sabally – out

Note: Satou Sabally left Game 3 with a head injury.

Aces vs. Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bets

Aces Best WNBA Prop Bet

• A’ja Wilson OVER 25.5 Points (-115)

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Wilson is a great prop target in Game 4: 

Simply put, the Mercury have not had an answer for Wilson in this series. 

The four-time league MVP is averaging 27.7 points on 19.7 shots per game in this series, scoring 28 and 34 points in her last two games. Even though Wilson didn’t clear this line in Game 1, she has 26 or more points in four of her last five games dating back to the WNBA Semifinals against the Indiana Fever.

There’s no doubt that Wilson is the focal point of the Las Vegas offense, and after taking just 16 shots in Game 1, she’s been much more assertive in the last two wins, attempting 23 and 20 shots while getting the free-throw line for 16 attempts. 

I expect the Aces to put the ball in the MVP’s hands early and often as they look to finish off Phoenix in four. 

Aces vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

These teams have cleared this total with relative ease in the first three games, combining for 175 points in Game 1, 169 points in Game 2 and 178 points in Game 3. 

Yet, oddsmakers continue to set the total for this matchup in the mid-160s. 

These teams are No. 1 and No. 4 in the WNBA in offensive rating during the playoffs, and the Aces have had the best offensive rating in the W since they went on a lengthy 16-game winning streak to close out the regular season.

The Mercury have not had an answer for Wilson (see the prop above), but they have fought to stay in these games, losing two of them by one possession.

Another close game would do wonders for the total on Friday, especially if these teams both end up in the 80s. Only one time in this series has a team failed to reach 80 points (the Mercury scored 78 in Game 2).

Pick: OVER 164 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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