Aces vs. Sun Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bets for Sunday, July 6

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Las Vegas Aces-Connecticut Sun matchup on July 6.

Las Vegas Aces guard Jewell Loyd is a solid prop target on Sunday. / Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images

The Las Vegas Aces have underachieved in the 2025 season, sitting at 8-9 overall after a loss to the Indiana Fever in their last game.

The Aces added star guard Jewell Loyd in the offseason, but Loyd has been an afterthought in the team’s offense at times, and the Aces’ defense has slipped to one of the five worst units in the WNBA.

Luckily for A’ja Wilson and company, they have the perfect bounce-back spot on the road on Sunday. The Aces are 17.5-point favorites against the two-win Connecticut Sun, who won’t have their best player – guard Marina Mabrey – in the lineup.

In addition to that, the Sun have listed veteran center Tina Charles as questionable for this matchup.

Can the Aces get back to .500 in what should be a very winnable game?

Let’s take a look at the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Sunday’s action. 

Aces vs. Sun Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Aces -17.5 (-108)
• Sun +17.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Aces: -2100
• Sun: +1100

Total

• 156 (Over -112/Under -108)

Aces vs. Sun How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, July 6
• Time: 4:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena
• How to Watch (TV): Vegas 34 and NBCS-BOS
• Aces record: 8-9
• Sun record: 2-15

Aces vs. Sun Injury Reports

Aces Injury Report

• Megan Gustafson – doubtful
• Cheyenne Parker-Tyus – out

Sun Injury Report

• Marina Mabrey – out
• Tina Charles – questionable
• Jaelyn Brown – out

Aces vs. Sun Best WNBA Prop Bets

Aces Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Jewell Loyd 10+ Points (-180)

This is a perfect spot for the Aces to get Loyd back involved in the offense after she took just three shots in their last game.

Las Vegas traded Kelsey Plum in a three-team deal that landed Loyd, but the six-time All-Star has not found her footing with her new team despite shooting 41.2 percent from 3. 

Overall, Loyd has 10 or more points in 11 of her 17 games this season, and prior to a three-shot game on July 3, she had scored 10 or more points in eight straight games. I think this is a prime bounce-back spot against the worst defense in the WNBA, as the Aces should look to get some kind of momentum with their new-look core. 

Loyd had 20 points in the first meeting with the Sun this season and 13 points on 5-of-9 shooting their most recent contest. I’ll buy low on her on Sunday afternoon. 

Aces vs. Sun Prediction and Pick

I wish that I could give a nuanced reason as to why bettors should take the Aces, but it’s really much, much more simpler than you’d think.

The Sun, simply put, are awful this season.

They rank dead last in the WNBA in offensive rating, defensive rating, net rating, assist-to-turnover ratio, effective field goal percentage, rebounding percentage and more.

The Sun have a net rating of -22.8, meaning they are getting outscored by nearly 23 points per 100 possessions this season. On top of that, they are just 7-10 against the spread despite constantly being set as massive underdogs.

Even though the Aces have been far from dominant in the 2025 season, and aren’t quite a title contender at the moment, I think they’re a must-bet in this matchup with Mabrey out and Charles questionable. 

The Aces have wins by 25 and 26 points against the Sun this season. 

Pick: Aces -17.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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