Alabama vs. Florida State Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 1

Iain MacMillan | Aug 27, 2025

Alabama is a 13.5-point favorite against Florida State in college football Week 1 action. / Will McLelland-Imagn Images

Alabama failed to live up to expectations in the first season of the post-Nick Saban era, going just 9-4 in Kalen DeBoer's first year as head coach. The Crimson Tide will look to take a step forward in 2025, but they have to deal with a significant amount of turnover from last year's team.

They'll take on the Florida State Seminoles in Week 1 action, who are desperate to bounce back from an abysmal 2-10 season, just one year after going 13-1.

Let's take a look at the odds and my best bet for this SEC vs. ACC showdown.

Alabama vs. Florida State Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Alabama -13.5 (-110)
• Florida State +13.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Alabama -530
• Florida State +390

Total

• Over 50.5 (-110)
• Under 50.5 (-110)

Alabama vs. Florida State How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, August 30
• Game Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Doak Campbell Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Alabama Record: 0-0
• Florida State Record: 0-0

Alabama vs. Florida State Key Player to Watch

Ty Simpson, Quarterback - Alabama

Ty Simpson enters his first full season as Alabama's starting quarterback. He has thrown 50 passes in his first three seasons with Alabama, racking up 381 yards, but no touchdowns or interceptions. Oddsmakers and bettors have faith in Simpson, as he enters the season tied for fifth at FanDuel in Heisman Trophy odds, alongside Carson Beck, LaNorris Sellers, and Drew Allar.

Let's see if he can get off to a hot start in Week 1.

Alabama vs. Florida State Prediction and Pick

It's hard to have much faith in Florida State in the opening week. It may figure things out as the season progresses, but eight of the Seminoles' starters on offense came in through the transfer portal, meaning there's little chemistry on that side of the football, and the players will need some time to learn the system and how to play with each other.

Ty Simpson is going to be able to rely on one of the best young receivers in the country in Ryan Williams. It's also worth noting that Alabama has been fantastic in opening games over the past decade, going 9-1 against the spread in opening week action.

If this game were later in the season, I'd be tempted to take the points with the Seminoles, but this is too tall an order for a Florida State team that's rebuilding from the ground up.

Pick: Alabama -13.5 (-110) via FanDuel

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