Alabama vs. Georgia Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 5

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Alabama-Georgia matchup in Week 5 of the college football season.

Alabama and quarterback Ty Simpson are underdogs in Week 5. / Gary Cosby-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

Two powerhouses in the SEC face off in Week 5 of the college football season as the No. 17 Alabama Crimson Tide take on the No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs.

Both of these teams have College Football Playoff expectations, but a loss to Florida State in Week 1 has left Alabama with every little room for error going forward. 

The Crimson Tide have rebounded since then, blowing out UL Monroe 73-0 before beating the Wisconsin Badgers by 24 in Week 3. Now, Alabama is coming off a bye to play the Bulldogs on the road in Week 5. 

Georgia is coming off a win over a top-25 team in the Tennessee Volunteers, 44-41 in overtime, in Week 3. The Bulldogs are also fresh off of a bye, and Gunner Stockton is looking to build on a solid start to 2025 where he’s completed 70.8 percent of his passes.

Oddsmakers have set Georgia as a favorite in Week 5, but can it cover the spread in this rivalry matchup?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch and my prediction for the top SEC game of the week. 

Alabama vs. Georgia Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Alabama +3 (-112)
• Georgia -3 (-108)

Moneyline

• Alabama: +130
• Georgia: -155

Total

• 52.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Alabama vs. Georgia How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Sept. 27
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Sanford Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Alabama record: 2-1
• Georgia record: 3-0

Alabama vs. Georgia Key Player to Watch

Ty Simpson, Quarterback, Alabama

After struggling a bit in Week 1, Simpson has bounced back in his last two games and has now thrown nine touchdown passes without an interception in the 2025 season.

The Alabama quarterback has completed 71.9 percent of his passes this season while leading the SEC in passing efficiency rating. He has a tough test against a Georgia defense that is usually one of the best in the country, but it has been beatable through the air in 2025, ranking 97th in EPA/Pass.

If Simpson outplays Stockton on Sunday, the Crimson Tide could end up pulling off the upset. 

Alabama vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick

Both of these teams have faced one top-25 team in the 2025 season and struggled a bit, but I lean with the Crimson Tide on the road on Saturday with this spread at three points.

Alabama has responded nicely from its Week 1 loss, and it ranks 18th in the country in EPA/Play while posting the No. 9 offense in EPA/Play this season.

I think Simpson, Ryan Williams and the Crimson Tide passing game will be able to take advantage of a Georgia defense that allowed 41 points in Week 3 and is nearly outside the top-100 in EPA/Pass this season. 

The Bulldogs are allowing just 2.7 yards per carry on defense, but they’ve been leaky through the air despite playing teams like Marshall and Austin Peay in Weeks 1 and 2. 

Both Stockton and Simpson are looking to prove that they can lead their respective programs to a national title, but I like Alabama’s offensive weapons a little more this season.

The Crimson Tide are averaging 459.3 yards per game on offense and outrank the Bulldogs in EPA/Play on offense. 

The Alabama running game is the only major concern that I have in this matchup, but I think it can beat the Bulldogs through the air to at least cover on Saturday. 

Pick: Alabama +3 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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