Arizona vs. Duke Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

Reed Wallach | Mar 26, 2025

Mar 23, 2025; Raleigh, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cooper Flagg (2) reacts after scoring a basket with Duke Blue Devils guard Tyrese Proctor (5) during the first half against the Baylor Bears in the second round of the NCAA Tournament at Lenovo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The betting favorite to win the National Championship, Duke, has been lightly tested through its first two games of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. 

The Blue Devils path to the Final Four goes through the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey with a Sweet 16 matchup against Arizona, who beat Oregon in the second round in a thrilling game on Sunday behind a monster effort from Caleb Love. 

Love, a former North Carolina standout guard who has plenty of experience against the Blue Devils, will try to spoil the Blue Devils chances of winning the title yet again. Can the Wildcats keep up? 

Here’s our betting preview!

Arizona vs. Duke Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Arizona: +8.5 (-102)
• Duke: -8.5 (-120)

Moneyline

• Arizona: +320
• Duke: -420

Total: 153.5 (Over -112/Under -109)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Arizona vs. Duke How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, March 27
• Game Time: 9:39 PM EST
• Venue: Prudential Center
• How to Watch (TV): TBS
• Arizona Record: 24-12
• Duke Record: 33-3

Arizona vs. Duke Key Players to Watch

Arizona

Caleb Love: The senior guard shined against Oregon, scoring 29 points with nine rebounds and four assists on five-of-seven shooting from 3-point range. He will look to out-duel Duke yet again, this time for Arizona and not North Carolina, but it may be tough sledding. In a matchup earlier this season, Love scored only eight points on 23% shooting.

Duke

Cooper Flagg: The Wooden Award favorite continues to pace the Blue Devils through the NCAA Tournament. In the first meeting against Arizona, he scored 24 points with seven rebounds and three assists as well as three blocks. This was a true road game back in November, so a ton has changed, including Flagg becoming that much better as the season has gone on. 

Arizona vs. Duke Prediction and Pick

I don’t take much from the Blue Devils 69-55 win at the McKale Center on November 22nd as both rotations have changed considerably since then, but it’s tough not to look Duke’s way in this one. 

The Arizona offense has been able to get torrid shooting at times from the likes of Love as well as emerging freshman wing Carter Bryant, but ultimately the team checks in 195th in the country in three-point percentage. 

The group is far more reliant on getting to the rim and dictating the shot volume battle with a top 20 offensive rebounding rate. However, that’s going to be tough to come by given the dominance on the interior of Flagg and fellow big man Khalam Maluach, who anchor an interior defense that is third in the country in two-point field goal percentage allowed. 

It’ll be far easier for Duke to get its points as the group is third in the country in effective field goal percentage and an even better rebounding unit than Arizona, seventh vs. tenth in that regard. 

Simply put, there are too many matchup edges for the Blue Devils, and while the volatility of Arizona can lead to some different outcomes, I’m going to trust the best team in college basketball to cover yet again in the NCAA Tournament.

PICK: Duke -8.5 (-120, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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