Arkansas State vs. Troy Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Sun Belt Championship Final

Reed Wallach | Mar 10, 2025

Nov 8, 2024; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Arkansas State Red Wolves guard Terrance Ford Jr. (11) drives against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the second half at Coleman Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Will McLelland-Imagn Images / Will McLelland-Imagn Images

A ticket to the NCAA Tournament is on the line on Monday night when Arkansas State and Troy play in the Sun Belt Championship. 

Last year, Arkansas State was in the Sun Belt title game before losing to James Madison, but will look to get over the hump on Monday in this year’s championship game against Troy. Both teams were part of a four-way tie for the regular season title, but oddsmakers are listing the Red Wolves as small favorites. 

Can Arkansas State win the Sun Belt Championship? Let’s break it down.

Arkansas State vs. Troy Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Arkansas State: -2.5 (-105)
• Troy: +2.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Arkansas State: -134
• Troy: +112

Total: 138.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Arkansas State vs. Troy How to Watch

• Date: Monday, March 10th
• Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
• Venue: Pensacola Bay Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
• Arkansas State Record: 24-9
• Troy Record: 22-10

Arkansas State vs. Troy Key Players to Watch

Arkansas State

Terrance Ford: Protecting the ball is key against Troy, and Ford has been at his best against the Trojans. Despite splitting the season series, Ford has combined for 13 assists and only two turnovers while averaging nearly 17 points per game. 

Troy 

Tayton Conerway: The Troy point guard dropped 22 points on James Madison to send the Trojans to the Sun Belt title game. He has shown his upside in this matchup as well, scoring 32 points in a loss to Arkansas State earlier this season. He is a downhill threat, shooting 62% on two-pointers in conference play, which is the third-best mark in Sun Belt play, and he’s a point guard!

Arkansas State vs. Troy Prediction and Pick

In a game that is being lined as an incredibly close call, I’m going to trust Arkansas State to cut down the nets on Monday night in the Sun Belt title game. 

While Troy has been a relentless defense this season, second in Sun Belt turnover percentage and third in effective field goal percentage, the Red Wolves are the best ball-handling unit in the conference and have the ability to far outpace the Trojans' shotmaking with the third-best effective field goal percentage in league play. 

The Trojans' path to success lies in their ability to win the shot volume battle. As mentioned above, this is an aggressive defense that forces turnovers at a high clip and is the best offensive rebounding group in the league. The team’s rebounding offsets its poor shooting, which includes 30% from beyond the arc. 

However, Arkansas State is third in the Sun Belt in defensive rebounding rate, so I believe that the team can counter some of Troy’s advantages nicely. 

Despite a split in the regular season, I’m siding with the Red Wolves to avenge the close loss at home to Troy in which the team led in the final minutes. 

PICK: Arkansas State ML (-134, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

---

Create a new FanDuel Sportsbook account, and you can get $150 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 wager. Download the FanDuel app and deposit a minimum of $5 to claim your new-user bonus today.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.