Arkansas vs. Texas Tech Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

Reed Wallach | Mar 26, 2025

Mar 22, 2025; Wichita, KS, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders forward JT Toppin (15) reacts after a play against the Drake Bulldogs during the first half at Intrust Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nick Tre. Smith-Imagn Images / Nick Tre. Smith-Imagn Images

No. 10 seed Arkansas is the lone double digit seed into the second weekend of the 2025 NCAA Tournament after stunning No. 2 seed St. John’s. 

The Razorbacks are in the Sweet 16, set to face No. 3 seed Texas Tech in the West Region semifinals on Thursday night in San Francisco, California. The Red Raiders are paced by an elite offense that has Big 12 Player of the Year J.T. Toppin patrolling the rim on both sides of the floor. 

Can Arkansas pull another upset? Or will Texas Tech continue to emerge as a Final Four threat?

Here’s our betting preview. 

Arkansas vs. Texas Tech Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Arkansas: +5.5 (-104)
• Texas Tech: -5.5 (-118)

Moneyline

• Arkansas: +190
• Texas Tech: -235

Total: 147.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Arkansas vs. Texas Tech How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, March 27
• Game Time: 10:09 PM EST
• Venue: Chase Center
• How to Watch (TV): TBS
• Arkansas Record: 22-13
• Texas Tech Record: 27-8

Arkansas vs. Texas Tech Key Players to Watch

Arkansas

DJ Wagner: The Kentucky transfer has given the Razorbacks some on-ball juice in the NCAA Tournament, providing downhill penetration as well as sound shot creation for others as he has 10 assists over the pair of postseason wins. Can Wagner shine again against a formidable Texas Tech defense?

Texas Tech

JT Toppin: The Big 12 Player of the Year has been unstoppable in the NCAA Tournament, averaging more than 18 points per game with nearly 12 rebounds and two blocks. He is an elite finisher around the rim and an imposing threat defending it and cleaning the glass. 

Arkansas vs. Texas Tech Prediction and Pick

I like Texas Tech to take care of business in the Sweet 16 against an Arkansas team that faced two incredibly limited offenses in the first two rounds. 

The Razorbacks got to the second weekend in close games, two teams that were poor shooting teams, primarily from the perimeter with Kansas ranked 77th in effective field goal percentage and St. John’s ranked 262nd.

Arkansas has been able to lean on its overall talent and pedigree to outlast those teams, but that won’t be the case against a spaced out Texas Tech offense that is 29th in the country in effective field goal percentage. 

Texas Tech is a loaded two-way roster with superior shot making, but also the physicality on the defensive side of the ball around Toppin and veteran forward Darrion Williams that ranks top 100 in the country in defensive rebounding rate. 

The Razorbacks will need to run on the Red Raiders to get easy buckets in transition, but the team is an elite transition denial team and forces teams to operate in the halfcourt, which will shift this game towards the favorite, who is in line to cover the spread.

PICK: Texas Tech -5.5 (-118, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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