Arthur Rinderknech vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Odds for US Open Fourth Round

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Arthur Rinderknech vs. Carlos Alcaraz match in the fourth round of the US Open.

Carlos Alcaraz is a massive favorite in the fourth round of the US Open. / Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz has yet to drop a set in the 2025 US Open, and he’ll aim to advance to the quarterfinals when he takes on Arthur Rinderknech on Sunday afternoon. 

Rinderknech has never made the fourth round at a Grand Slam in his career, although he does have one other third-round appearance at the US Open under his belt.

Oddsmakers have set Alcaraz as a massive favorite in the latest odds for this match, as the 2022 US Open winner is viewed as one of the favorites to win it all in 2025. After a second-round exit in the 2024 US Open, Alcaraz has bounced back in a big way so far in New York.

Let’s take a look at the odds, each player’s path to the fourth round and my prediction for Sunday’s match. 

Arthur Rinderknech vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Arthur Rinderknech: +2000
• Carlos Alcaraz: -5000

Total

• 30.5 (Over -120/Under -115)

Arthur Rinderknech vs. Carlos Alcaraz How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Aug. 31
• Time: 1:30 p.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN 

Arthur Rinderknech: How Did They Get Here? 

This is the best showing at a Grand Slam in Rinderknech’s career, and he’s battled to get here.

Rinderknech knocked off Roberto Carballés Baena in four sets in the first round and the Frenchman looked strong in the final set, winning 6-2. 

Then, Rinderknech needed five sets in Round 2 to advance past world No. 18 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina – an impressive upset win. Finally, he beat Benjamin Bonzi in four sets in Round 3, winning the final three sets to advance to the fourth round for the first time in his US Open career.

Carlos Alcaraz: How Did They Get Here? 

Alcaraz has been dominant so far at the US Open, dropping just four total games in the second round and six in the third round to advance to Round 4. He actually had the most trouble in Round 1 against American Reilly Opelka, but the No. 2 player in the world still won that match in straight sets. 

Alcaraz has been up and down at the US Open, winning it all in 2022 while posting a quarterfinal finish in 2021 and a semifinal finish in 2023 before bowing out in Round 2 last year.

He looks to be on a mission entering this match, and he’s 3-0 against Rinderknech in his career. One of those wins came in the 2021 US Open, when he beat Rinderknech in four sets in the Round of 64. 

Arthur Rinderknech vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction and What the Odds Say

Based on the odds – Alcaraz -5000 – the Spaniard has an implied probability of 98.04 percent to advance to the quarterfinal for the fourth time in his US Open career.

It would be shocking to see Alcaraz come up short, especially since he’s won in straight sets in all of his meetings so far at the 2025 US Open.

However, I do think Rinderknech could push this match OVER the total number of games.

Through his first three rounds, Rinderknech has battled – even when set as the underdog – playing 43, 44 and 36 games. Alcaraz played 32 games in his Round 1 match, but he has not cleared this total since. 

However, back in 2021, these two went four sets in the US Open before Alcaraz ultimately pulled off the win. In their three meetings, Alcaraz has just one victory by straight sets despite going 3-0. They had a three-set match in 2023 that finished with 35 total games.

I think the OVER is the way to go in Sunday’s match.  

Pick: OVER 30.5 Games (-120 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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