Aryna Sabalenka vs. Cristina Bucsa Prediction, Odds for US Open Fourth Round

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the fourth-round match between Aryna Sabalenka and Cristina Bucsa at the US Open.

World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka is a massive favorite in the fourth round. / Mike Frey-Imagn Images

World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka is aiming to defend her US Open title in 2025, and she’s off to a strong start, reaching the fourth round without dropping a single set.

Sabalenka will take on Cristina Busca on Sunday in a fourth round battle, and Busca is currently in her deepest run ever at the US Open after knocking off No. 19 Elise Mertens in the third round.

Despite Busca’s run, oddsmakers have Sabalenka set as a massive favorite to win this match and advance. The No. 1 player in the world has made the US Open final in back-to-back years, and she’s at least made the semifinals in four consecutive showings in New York.

Can she keep that impressive run going and advance to the quarters? Here’s a look at the odds, each player’s path to Round 4 and my prediction for this match. 

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Cristina Bucsa Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Aryna Sabalenka: -2000
• Cristina Bucsa: +1200

Total

• 17.5 (Over -120/Under -110)

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Cristina Bucsa How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Aug. 31
• Time: 5:00 p.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2/ ESPN+

Aryna Sabalenka: How Did They Get Here? 

Sabalenka has yet to drop a set at the US Open in 2025, winning against Rebeka Masarova, Polina Kudermetova and Leylah Fernandez. 

In her US Open career, Sabalenka has been dominant, winning at least five matches in each of the last four tournaments that she’s appeared in. She has a chance to get a step closer to that feat once again in her first ever match against Busca.

Cristina Bucsa: How Did They Get Here? 

Busca had made it out of the first round just one time at the US Open in four tries before this year, and she’s already won three matches (three times as she had in any other US Open) in 2025. 

To reach the fourth round, Busca knocked off Claire Liu in Round 1, Alexandra Eala in Round 2 and Mertnes in Round 3. Mertens was the only player to win a set against Busca, who needed just 15 games to get past Liu and 19 to get past Eala.

This is by far the toughest test for Busca at the US Open, but she’s shown some impressive form in 2025. 

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Cristina Bucsa Prediction and What the Odds Say

Based on the odds for this match, Sabalenka has an implied probability of 95.24 percent to advance to the quarterfinals of the US Open for the fifth year in a row.

While Busca is likely going to lose this match, especially since Sabalenka has been so dominant in New York, I do think there is a way to bet on her on Sunday.

As great as Sabalenka has been, winning each of her matches in the 2025 US Open in straight sets, she hasn’t done it by massive margins.

Sabalenka has won seven, five and four more games than her opponent in her matches, yet the games spread for this fourth round clash is set at 6.5. 

If bettors think Sabalenka wins in straight sets – which she is heavily favored to do – she’s going to need to look a lot more dominant to cover this number. For example, the No. 1 player in the world won a set 6-1 in her Round 1 match, but she still ended up winning just seven more games than her opponent.

This spread suggests all-around dominance from Sabalenka, but it may be selling Busca’s run to this point short.

The defending champ will likely advance, but don’t expect her to run away with this match. 

Pick: Busca +6.5 Games (+100 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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