Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elise Mertens Prediction, Odds for Wimbledon Round 4 (Bet Mertens to Pull Off Upset)

Iain MacMillan | Jul 5, 2025

Bet Elise Mertens to upset Aryna Sabalenka in Wimbledon Round 4 action. / Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Despite beating Emma Raducanu in straight sets, Aryna Sabalenka had her work cut out for her in the third round. Now, she advanced to the fourth round to take on Elise Mertens, who is fresh off an upset victory against Elina Svitolina.

This will be the first seeded player that Sabalenka will face this tournament. Can she survive and advance as the No. 1 seed and betting favorite? Let's find out what the oddsmakers think.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elise Mertens Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Moneyline

• Aryna Sabalenka -425
• Elise Mertens +310

Total Games

• 20.5 (Over -125/Under -110)

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elise Mertens How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, July 5
• Time: 10:00 a.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN

Aryna Sabalenka: How They've Fared at Wimbledon

Sabalenka's two best finishes at Wimbledon were semifinal appearances in both 2021
and 2023. Last year, she withdrew from competition due to a shoulder injury. Now, fresh off a strong performance at the French Open, she'll look to best her top finishes and make another appearance in a Grand Slam final.

She cruised past the Canadian, Branstine, in the opening round, beating her 6-1 and 7-5. In the second round, she needed a tiebreaker to get past Marie Bouzkova, but eventually defeated her in
straight sets. She then faced Raducanu in one of the best matches of the tournament, eventually winning in straight sets.

Elise Mertens: How They've Fared at Wimbledon

The large majority of the success achieved by Elise Mertens through the years has been in doubles play, winning four Grand Slams in doubles. She has yet to make it to the final of a Grand Slam in singles play and has never made it past the fourth round in singles play at Wimbledon.

She defeated Linda Fruhvirtova in straight sets in Round 1, but had to battle back for a second-round win after dropping the first set to Ann Li. She defeated No. 14 Svitolina in the third round, beating her 6-1 in the first set and then needing a tiebreak to beat her in the second set.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elise Mertens: Prediction and What the Odds Say

DraftKings has Sabalenka set as the -425 betting favorite, which translates to an implied probability of 80.95%.

These two have faced each other 12 times, and Sabalenka holds a 10-2 record against Mertens. They've faced each other twice in 2025, with Sabalenka winning both matches.

Despite Sabalenka's recent history against Mertens and her ability to find ways to win matches so far this tournament, I'm going to take a shot on Mertens to defeat her on Sunday. Sabalenka has shown some vulnerability in her game at times through the first three rounds, and his historically struggled on grass compared to other surfaces.

At +310, I think Mertens is worth a look.

Pick: Mertens +310 via DraftKings

---

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn $150 in bonus bets. Regardless of the outcome of your wager, DraftKings will add six $25 bonus bet tokens to your new account instantly.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.