Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Prediction, Odds for US Open Semifinals

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Aryna Sabalenka-Jessica Pegula match in the US Open semifinals.

Aryna Sabalenka is the favorite in her match with Jessica Pegula. / Mike Frey-Imagn Images

At the 2024 US Open, Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka faced off in the final, their paths will cross once again in New York.

Sabalenka (the No. 1 player in the world) is set to play Pegula (the No. 4 player in the world) in a semifinal match on Thursday. 

Pegula has struggled against the No. 1 player in the world in her career, losing seven of her nine matches against Sabalenka. However, the American has not dropped a set at the 2025 US Open and is coming off a dominant quarterfinal win.

Sabalenka, on the other hand, advanced to the semis by walkover as Marketa Vondrousova was forced to withdraw due to an injury.

Oddsmakers have set Sabalenka as a favorite in this semifinal match, but how should we bet on it?

Here’s a look at the odds, each player’s path to the semis and my prediction for this rematch between last year’s US Open finalists. 

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Aryna Sabalenka: -330
• Jessica Pegula: +240

Total

• 21.5 (Over -120/Under -115)

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Sept. 4
• Time: TBA
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN?ESPN+

Aryna Sabalenka: How Did They Get Here?

Sabalenka advanced to the semis by way of a walkover, but she had dominated the competition in her four matches before that, winning all of them in straight sets.

The No. 1 player in the world, Sabalenka has a ton of great history at the US Open, as this is her fifth appearance in the semifinals. She’s looking to advance to the title match for the third year in a row.

Jessica Pegula: How Did They Get Here?

Pegula finally broke through at the US Open in 2024, reaching the final, and she’s one win away from getting back to that stage in 2025.

The American knocked off Barbora Krejčíková in the quarterfinals, winning 6-3, 6-3. So far in the US Open, Pegula has not lost more than six games in a single match, and she’s yet to drop a set.

Pegula has not beaten Sabalenka since the 2023 WTA Finals in Mexico. Can she finally get over the hump against one of the best in the sport? 

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Prediction and Pick

Based on the latest odds – Sabalenka -330 – the No. 1 player in the world has an implied probability of 76.74 percent to reach the final in 2025.

While Sabalenka has been a fixture in the final in the US Open the past two years, this won’t be an easy match against a familiar opponent.

Pegula has lost the last three meetings between her and Sabalenka (2025 in Miami, 2024 US Open and 2024 in Cincinnati).

However, Pegula has forced 20, 24 and 21 games in those matches – despite the fact that she didn’t win a set.

There’s no doubt that Sabalenka (7-2 against Pegula all time) has the edge, but both of these players have been in elite form in New York, failing to drop a single set in this year’s US Open.

I think that paves the way for a longer match on Thursday, especially if Pegula is able to force a third set. The American has won just one of the last eight matches between these two players, so it’ll likely be up to her making things tough on the top player in the world for this match to go OVER. 

Pick: OVER 21.5 Games (-120 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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