Astros vs. Rangers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Sunday, May 18

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Houston Astros-Texas Rangers matchup on Sunday, May 18.

The Astros are road favorites on Sunday. / Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

Framber Valdez and the Houston Astros are looking to split their four-game set with the Texas Rangers on Sunday, and they are small favorites on the road to do so.

Texas is currently one game up on Houston in the AL West standings, but the Astros have a better run differential (+19) than the Rangers (+2) in 2025.

On Sunday, the Rangers will send former first-round pick Jack Leiter to the mound for the seventh time in the 2025 season. He’s led Texas to a 3-3 record through his first six appearances.

Let’s break down the odds for this game, as well as some bets to place in the series finale between these AL West rivals. 

Astros vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Astros -1.5 (+140)
• Rangers +1.5 (-166)

Moneyline

• Astros: -122
• Rangers: +102

Total

• 8 (Over -112/Under -108)

Astros vs. Rangers Probable Pitchers

• Houston: Framber Valdez (2-4, 3.54 ERA)
• Texas: Jack Leiter (3-2, 4.34 ERA)

Astros vs. Rangers How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, May 18
• Time: 1:05 p.m. EST
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• How to Watch (TV): Roku
• Astros record: 23-22
• Rangers record: 25-22 

Astros vs. Rangers Best MLB Prop Bets

Rangers Best MLB Prop Bet

• Jack Leiter OVER 2.5 Walks Allowed (+145)

I’m going to take a shot on this plus money prop, as Leiter has walked 13 batters over his last four starts, including three outings with three or more walks. The youngster struggled with his command in 2024 as well, allowing 4.3 walks per nine innings.

While Houston is just 16th in MLB in walks drawn this season, Leiter’s lack of control is notable because he’s allowed seven free passes to just five hits in his last two starts. This season, he ranks in the 17th percentile amongst MLB pitchers in walk percentage. 

Astros vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why the Astros are worth a look on the road on Sunday: 

The Houston Astros have lefty ace Framber Valdez on the mound on Sunday, and I think they’re a little undervalued as small favorites against the Texas Rangers.

Valdez is just 2-4 in games that he’s earned a decision in this season, but he has a 3.54 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP, allowing two or fewer earned runs in six of his nine outings.

Meanwhile, Texas righty Jack Leiter has been far from lights out in 2025, posting a 4.34 ERA in six starts. He has a 1.20 WHIP and has walked 14 batters this season, including 13 over his last four appearances.

The Rangers’ offense is also questionable, ranking just 25th in MLB in OPS this season. 

With Valdez on the bump, I’ll back Houston to win this series finale and make a push back into a top spot in the AL West.  

Pick: Astros Moneyline (-122 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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