Auburn vs. Alabama Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Saturday, Feb. 15

Reed Wallach | Feb 14, 2025

Feb 11, 2025; Austin, Texas, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide guard Mark Sears (1) reacts after scoring a three point basket during the first half against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Moody Center. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images / Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

It’s the basketball version of the Iron Bowl on Saturday as the top two teams in the AP Poll meet. 

Auburn will take the short trip to Tuscaloosa to face Alabama in a battle of two title hopefuls. With SEC title implications on the line, who has the edge in what is being touted as one of the games of the college basketball season?

With a sky-high total, how should we bet on this entertaining affair? Here’s the betting preview for Saturday’s marquee matchup.

Auburn vs. Alabama Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Auburn: +1.5 (-104)
• Alabama: -1.5 (-118)

Moneyline

• Auburn: +108
• Alabama: -130

Total: 172.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Auburn vs. Alabama How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, February 15
• Game Time: 4:00 PM EST
• Venue: Coleman Coliseum
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Auburn Record: 22-2
• Alabama Record: 21-3

Auburn vs. Alabama Key Players to Watch

Auburn

Johni Broome: Broome’s ankle injury is nothing but a distant memory as the Wooden Award candidate has been on a tear since returning from injury, scoring at least 15 points and grabbing at least five rebounds in every game while blocking at least two shots in all six games. An elite rim protector, Broome has been able to shut off the rim for opponents while providing an elite safety valve around the bucket on offense.

Alabama

Aden Holloway: The former Auburn guard has been tasked with being a floor-spacing threat for the likes of Mark Sears and he has paid dividends for the Crimson Tide, shooting 42% from beyond the arc this season, including 50% in SEC play. How will the sophomore respond to facing his former squad? 

Auburn vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick

Even with a total in the 170’s, I can’t help but look in that direction. 

While Alabama’s offense should have plenty of success against an Auburn defense that is trending in the wrong direction, I can’t trust the Crimson Tide’s defense either in a game that should feature plenty of possessions. 

Let’s start with Alabama’s defense. The Crimson Tide play a very deliberate style of basketball. The team wants to funnel the opposition to the rim and use its length to contest shots inside. However, Auburn is 23rd in the country in two-point field goal percentage while also ranking 24th in offensive rebounding rate. With the finishing ability of Broome buoying this offense, I am confident that Auburn will be able to score at will. 

When shots open up from the perimeter, look for Auburn to cash in as the unit is 40th in the nation in 3-point percentage. 

While it’s not the smoothest comparison, Auburn scored 75 points at Alabama last season as a worse 3-point shooting unit by way of shooting 20% from beyond the arc. With a slight uptick around a better offense, I expect the Tigers to still get into the 80’s. 

However, there are some worrying signs for Auburn’s defense, which has trended in the wrong direction in SEC play. The defense has been vulnerable on the inside, allowing SEC foes to shoot 48% on two’s, sixth best in the league, and the team is 14th in defensive rebounding rate. Alabama should maximize this part of the game, the second-best two-point shooting team in the country and 16th in OREB% nationally (second in SEC play, for that matter). 

Don’t look past that both teams allow a ton of free throws either, and each offense is always capable of hunting extra freebies in a game that will likely be tight late and decided at the charity stripe. 

In games Alabama has played against KenPom top 20 offenses in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency – Purdue, Illinois, and Kentucky – the average game has featured 183.6 points. 

All that to say, I lean towards both offenses dictating the dance, and I’ll go over the total. 

PICK: OVER 172.5 (-115, available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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