Baylor vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament First Round

Reed Wallach | Mar 20, 2025

Mar 13, 2025; Kansas City, MO, USA; Baylor Bears guard VJ Edgecombe (7) shoots the ball during the second half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images / William Purnell-Imagn Images

Baylor and Mississippi State tip off Friday’s first round action of the 2025 NCAA Tournament with a No. 8 vs. No. 9 seed matchup. 

The Bulldogs navigated a tricky SEC schedule to qualify for the NCAA Tournament and are set to face Baylor in a projected coin flip on Friday afternoon. While the Bears didn’t live up to its lofty preseason standards, the team has the opportunity to win a tournament game. 

Here’s how the two stack up.  

Baylor vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Baylor: +1.5 (-112)
• Mississippi State: -1.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Baylor: -102
• Mississippi State: -118

Total: 144.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Baylor vs. Mississippi State How to Watch

• Date: Friday, March 21
• Game Time: 12:15 PM EST
• Venue: Lenovo Center
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Baylor Record: 19-14
• Mississippi State Record: 21-12

Baylor vs. Mississippi State Key Players to Watch

Baylor 

VJ Edgecombe: The potential top five pick in this summer’s NBA Draft, Edgecombe will look to make an impression in the NCAA Tournament. He has enjoyed a strong stretch of play in Big 12 competition, scoring 20 or more in five conference games and upping his average to 15 points per game. A capable three-point shooter with elite bounce, Edgecombe will look to guide the Bears to the second round. 

Mississippi State

Josh Hubbard: The Mississippi State guard has been the team’s primary option on offense, averaging 18 points per game with more than three dimes. He is a streaky shooter, but a high volume one that has shown he in big efforts, including in the SEC Tournament when he dropped 24 points in a losing effort against Missouri. 

Baylor vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Pick

There’s not much separating these teams as there are tons of volatile outcomes surrounding whether Hubbard can get his shot to fall in this one. 

The Baylor defense has been poor at times this season and is vulnerable defending the perimeter, allowing opponents to shoot 35% from beyond the arc (277th in the country) on an above average rate. However, a lot of what Miss. State wants to do on offense revolves around Hubbard operating in the early part of the shot clock. 

However, Baylor does have a sturdy defense in terms of limiting transition points, which can lead to Mississippi State getting bottled up on offense in the halfcourt. 

On the other end, Baylor can create plenty of perimeter chances for its group of capable shooters, but its offense revolves around the team's ability to get to the rim late in the shot clock. Mississippi State’s compact defense does a good job of keeping team’s out of the paint, which can also lead to some wasted possessions on offense for the Bears. 

With some schematic clashes for both teams, I’m going to side with the under. 

PICK: UNDER 144.5  (-110, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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