Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Aaron Judge, Rafael Devers)

Breaking down the best home run prop bets for the MLB action on Sunday, Sept. 28.

New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge is a solid prop target on Sunday. / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

The final day of the MLB regular season has a ton of playoff matchups still yet to be decided, but it’s also the last day where we have 15 games to choose from when it comes to home run props. 

I have multiple props that I’m eyeing on Sunday, including one for New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge.

Betting on home run props can be tough, but they do usually offer pretty solid pay outs if you’re able to predict them correctly. I’m eyeing a player that is nearly 7/1 to go deep on Sunday as well. 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds and each prop for Sept. 28. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Sunday, Sept. 28

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run (+274)
• Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+179)
• Nathaniel Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+680)

Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run (+274)

San Francisco Giants slugger Rafael Devers has a solid matchup to end the regular season, as he’ll take on the Colorado Rockies and McCade Brown.

This season, Brown has allowed four home runs in six appearances, posting a 7.54 ERA. The Rockies have the worst team ERA (5.99) in MLB this season, and I expect Devers to face some gettable arms in this matchup.

Over the last week, Devers has homered three times while posting a .273 batting average, and 25 of his 34 homers have come against right-handed pitching. He’s a great bet in this regular-season finale. 

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+179)

There may not be a hotter hitter in MLB than Judge, and he’s looking to lock up his second straight AL MVP.

Judge is hitting .400 with a 1.636 OPS over the last week, homering four times in six games. He’s hit 11 home runs over his last 25 games, posting a .378 batting average during that stretch.

So, I don’t mind taking him against a Baltimore Orioles team that allowed him to go deep on Saturday. 

Kyle Bradish is on the mound for the O’s, and he’s given up two homers in five outings this season. The O’s bullpen (4.58 ERA) has struggled in 2025, allowing 80 home runs overall. I think Judge is going to go deep again to close out the regular season. 

Nathaniel Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+680)

This is my long shot bet of the day, as Boston Red Sox first baseman Nathaniel Lowe has homered 16 times against right-handed pitching while posting a .761 OPS in 2025.

On Sunday, he takes on Detroit’s Chris Paddack, who has been extremely prone to the long ball, allowing 29 home runs in 32 appearances.

Boston doesn’t have a clear-cut favorite to go deep in this game, but I believe there is some value with Lowe, who is hitting .355 over the last two weeks (12 games, 10 starts).

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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