Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Fernando Tatis Jr., Alex Bregman)

Breaking down the best players to bet on to hit a home run for the MLB action on Thursday, May 22.

San Diego Padres right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. is a great prop target on Thursday. / David Frerker-Imagn Images

Even though Thursday’s MLB action only features nine games, there are still a couple of players worth betting on to hit a home run – and potentially cash a massive plus-money bet.

Back on Tuesday, I hit a prop for Aaron Judge to hit a home run against Patrick Corbin and the Texas Rangers, and while I’m not backing him on Thursday, there is an MVP candidate that is worth looking at.

San Diego Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr. has a great matchup in an afternoon tilt with the Toronto Blue Jays, as he looks to add to his team-high total in homers.

He’s one of two players to bet on for Thursday’s action, as the SI Betting team continues to share our favorite home run picks every day throughout the 2025 season. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, May 22

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+205)
• Alex Bregman to Hit a Home Run (+550)

Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+205)

This season, Fernando Tatis Jr. has already hit 12 home runs, and he’s been dominant against right-handed pitching.

Not only is the Padres slugger hitting .326 against righties with a .987 OPS, but 11 of his 12 long balls have come against them.

On Thursday, Tatis gets a crack at the Toronto Blue Jays and starter Bowden Francis, who has really struggled with limiting the long ball in 2025. Francis enters this outing with a 5.63 ERA, and he’s given up a whopping 14 home runs in nine starts.

So, any Padres player is worth a look in this game, as Francis has just two outings this season where he didn’t allow a home run. For comparison, the young righty has allowed multiple homers in four of his nine appearances.

Even at a shorter price of +205, Tatis is worth a look against the Jays this afternoon. 

Alex Bregman to Hit a Home Run (+550)

Boston Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman is looking like one of the best acquisitions of the offseason, as he’s hitting .297 with 11 homers and a .935 OPS.

While 10 of Bregman’s home runs have come against right-handed pitching in 2025, I’m buying him against Baltimore Orioles lefty Cade Povich on Thursday.

The power hasn’t been there just yet for Bregman against lefties, but he’s still posted a better OPS against them this season (.991) than righties. Bregman is hitting an impressive .364 against southpaws, racking up 16 hits in 44 at bats.

Povich has struggled with limiting home runs this season, allowing eight in as many appearances.

Plus, the Baltimore bullpen has given up 27 homers already in the 2025 season and has one of the 10 worst ERAs in MLB. 

Bregman is worth a shot at this price on Thursday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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