Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target James Wood, Rafael Devers on Tuesday)

Can James Wood break out of his slump on Tuesday?

Washington Nationals left fielder James Wood is an interesting prop target on Tuesday. / Brad Mills-Imagn Images

Who doesn’t love betting on a few home run props in MLB?

On Tuesday, there are a ton of games to bet on, as the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays kick things off with a doubleheader this afternoon.

Every day at SI Betting, we aim to deliver some winners in the home run prop market, although they can be very tough to predict.

On the bright side, they usually offer pretty favorable payouts, and just one coming through can constitute a winning day.

Tonight, I’m eyeing All-Star outfielder James Wood as a candidate to break out of his current slump and go deep in a favorable matchup. Plus, San Francisco Giants slugger Rafael Devers may be a little undervalued on Tuesday.

Here’s a full breakdown of each home run prop to bet for Tuesday’s action.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Tuesday, July 29

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+340)
• James Wood to Hit a Home Run (+400)
• Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run (+370)

Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+340)

Detroit Tigers outfielder Riley Greene has been slumping as of late, hitting just .176 over his last 22 games, but he has left the yard six times during that stretch.

Overall, Greene has 25 home runs this season while hitting a solid .271, and he should have a good chance to get back on track on Tuesday.

The Tigers are taking on the Arizona Diamondbacks and righty Brandon Pfaadt, who enters this start with a 4.76 ERA, allowing 17 home runs in 21 starts. Pfaadt has looked better as of late, allowing just one homer in four July starts, but he’s also in just the second percentile in expected ERA this season at 6.10.

Greene has dominated right-handed pitching, hitting .297 with 23 of his 25 homers and a .938 OPS. I think he gets back on track against Pfaadt tonight. 

James Wood to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Washington Nationals All-Star James Wood has been slumping since the break, hitting .114 over the last two weeks (nine games).

So, he’s seen his home run prop odds fall all the way to +400 ahead of Tuesday’s clash with the Houston Astros. I think this is a perfect spot to buy low, especially with Houston set to start Jason Alexander (8.14 ERA), who has given up four homers in seven appearances (21.0 innings) so far this season.

Wood has been great against right-handed pitching, posting an .866 OPS with 15 of his 24 home runs this season. While the youngster has struggled as of late, this is a great matchup for him to get on track against one of the worst pitchers on Houston’s staff. 

Usually, Wood is shorter than 3/1 to leave the yard, so his recent slump is giving us some value at +400 on Tuesday. 

Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run (+370)

San Francisco Giants star Rafael Devers has turned things on since the All-Star break – hitting .293 – and he’s homered twice over the last week entering Tuesday’s game against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Devers is facing a lefty in Pittsburgh’s Bailey Falter, but he’s actually hit left-handed pitching fairly well this season, posting a slash line of .267/.349/.452 to with six home runs. Can he go deep for a seventh time against a lefty tonight?

Falter is a good pitcher to fade, as he’s allowed seven home runs in four starts this month, pushing his season total to 16 home runs allowed.

The lefty also ranks in just the 21st percentile in ground-ball percentage this season, meaning there should be a ton of fly balls hit by the Giants on Tuesday. I don’t mind taking a shot on Devers at this price against a struggling starter.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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