Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Shohei Ohtani)

Breaking down the best home run prop bets for the MLB playoff action on Monday, Oct. 13.

Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a great prop target in Game 2 of the ALCS. / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

A pair of championship series matchups take place in Major League Baseball on Monday night, and there are some interesting arms on the mound. 

Logan Gilbert gets the ball for the Seattle Mariners in Game 2 of the ALCS against the Toronto Blue Jays while Blake Snell is on the bump for the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 1 against the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLCS. 

Betting on home runs is a fun way to get in on the MLB action, and I cashed a Cal Raleigh home run prop in Game 1 of the ALCS last night. Still, homers are hard to predict with so few games, and there’s a chance that we won’t even see one on Monday.

So, bettors may want to exercise some caution in their unit size when betting on players to leave the yard tonight.

I’m eyeing a couple of players to go deep, including Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has some interesting numbers against Gilbert in this career. 

Here’s a full breakdown of the home run props for Monday night’s playoff action.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Monday, Oct. 13

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+323)
• Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+256)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+323)

In the ALDS, Guerrero homered three times against the New York Yankees while posting an insane .529 batting average.

While he did not record a hit in Game 1 of the ALCS, I think that changes against Gilbert, who he has seen the ball well off of in his career.

In 15 at-bats against Gilbert, Guerrero is 6-for-15 with two doubles, two home runs and a 1.404 OPS. The Blue Jays slugger has also had a power surge in the playoffs after hitting just 23 homers in the regular season.

Gilbert did give up 20 home runs in 25 starts in the regular season, so he’s not immune to giving up the long ball either. I think this is a solid price for Vladdy Jr. in Game 2. 

Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+256)

It’s been a slow start to the postseason for Shohei Ohtani, but he has homered twice despite a sub-.200 batting average across six games.

I don’t mind taking a shot on one of baseball's best power hitters in Game 1, especially since Milwaukee has yet to announce a starter.

If the Brewers go with a bullpen game, one may look at that as concerning, but I do think there is a reason to back Ohtani if that’s the case.

Milwaukee has  1.20 bullpen ERA in the playoffs, but it has allowed four homers in five games. If you’re making a dart throw pick for this matchup, Ohtani is far and away the most trustworthy power hitter on either side. 

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and win your first $5 bet to get $200 in bonus bets instantly.