Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Predictions for Bryce Miller, Nick Pivetta, Marlins Starter)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the MLB action on Wednesday night, including a pick for Seattle's Bryce Miller.

Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Bryce Miller is an interesting prop target on Wednesday. / Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Betting on player props isn’t always the most popular way to approach a game, but when it comes to Major League Baseball, it is one of my favorites.

Baseball is an extremely tough sport to predict with the added wrinkle that a bullpen could ruin – or help – a solid breakdown of a game. 

So, I personally love wagering on pitcher prop bets for starters that I’m high on, and it’s always fun to sprinkle in a hitter prop here and there.

With a plethora of afternoon games in action on Wednesday, here’s a few players that I’m targeting in the prop market for April 16. 

Best MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday, April 16

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Bryce Miller UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
• Max Meyer OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-165)
• Nick Pivetta OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed (-130)

Bryce Miller UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)

This season, Bryce Miller has failed to clear 5.5 strikeouts in a single game for the Seattle Mariners, punching out 13 batters across 16.0 innings of work.

He’s facing a Cincinnati Reds team that is in the middle of the pack in terms of strikeouts per game this season, but Miller hasn’t worked deep enough into games for me to trust him on Wednesday.

The Mariners righty has thrown at least 90 pitches in each start, but he’s failed to complete six full innings in any of his three outings, limiting his ceiling when it comes to this prop. 

Not only is Miller in just the 31st percentile in strikeout percentage, according to Statcast, but he’s not forcing a ton of swings and misses either, ranking in the 39th percentile in both whiff percentage and chase rate in 2025.  

Max Meyer OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-165)

Miami Marlins youngster Max Meyer has a tough matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday, but he may be undervalued when it comes to his strikeout prop.

Meyer has at least four punchouts in each of his outings this season, striking out 19 batters in 18.0 innings of work. Arizona averages less than seven K’s per game in the 2025 season,but Meyer’s advanced numbers are pretty impressive this season. He ranks in the: 

• 67th percentile in strikeout percentage
• 64th percentile in whiff percentage
• 61st percentile in chase rate
• 87th percentile in pitching run value

Meyer has also worked six or more innings in two of his three outings, giving him a few more chances to pick up strikeouts if he can get there in this one. At 3.5, this number is too low to pass up on Wednesday. 

Nick Pivetta OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed (-130)

San Diego Padres righty Nick Pivetta is off to a fast start this season, posting a 1.59 ERA across three outings.

However, I think he’s a pitcher to fade in the prop market on Wednesday against a Chicago Cubs team that leads Major League Baseball in walks this season. 

The Cubs have already walked a whopping 89 times in 2025, and Pivetta has been prone to the free pass this season and in his career. He’s walked at least three batters in two of his three starts this season, and he averages 3.3 walks per nine innings for his career.

With this prop line set at 1.5, I think Pivetta is an ideal fade candidate – even if he pitches well overall – on Wednesday afternoon. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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