Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Predictions for Max Fried, Casey Mize, Trea Turner)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the MLB action on Thursday, June 5, including a pick for Max Fried.

New York Yankees starting pitcher Max Fried is a solid prop target on Thursday. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Thursday’s MLB action doesn’t feature all 30 teams, but there are still a handful of games to dive into, including a rubber match between the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians – a rematch of last season’s ALCS.

The Yankees will have ace Max Fried on the mound for that matchup, and he’s one of several players that I’m targeting in the prop market on Thursday. 

In addition to Fried, there is a Philadelphia Phillies hitter that I love against Toronto Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt and one other starting pitcher that may be undervalued against one of the worst teams in baseball.

Here’s a breakdown of each of the props I’m considering for Thursday, June 5. 

Best MLB Prop Bets for Thursday, June 5

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Max Fried UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed (-170)
• Casey Mize to Record a Win (+120)
• Trea Turner OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+120)

Max Fried UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed (-170)

Yankees ace Max Fried has been terrific this season – even though he did struggle in his last outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Fried has 1.92 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in the 2025 season, allowing just 57 hits in 75.0 innings of work. So, I’m a little shocked to see Fried’s hits allowed prop all the way up at 5.5 on Thursday evening.

So far this season, Fried has eight outings where he’s given up five or fewer hits, and he had been on an eight-game streak of hitting the UNDER on 5.5 hits allowed until his last two outings. 

I think this is a prime bounce-back spot for Fried, as the Guardians are just 20th in MLB in batting average against left-handed pitchers. Cleveland is also just 23rd overall in MLB batting average, so bettors should see some positive regression from Fried after he struggled against an elite Los Angeles Dodgers offense. 

Casey Mize to Record a Win (+120)

Detroit Tigers starter Casey Mize is off to a great start in the 2025 season, leading the Tigers to a 7-2 record in his nine starts while posting a 2.82 ERA.

He has a favorable matchup as a big favorite against the Chicago White Sox, who are just 19-43 in the 2025 campaign.

I want to back the Tigers – who have the best record in the AL – but doing so is tough on the run line given how heavily favored they are. So, instead, I’m going to bet on Mize to record a win at plus money.

Mize has a win/loss record of 6-1, earning the decision in all but two of his starts and six of his seven wins. The Tigers should be able to jump on Sean Burke (3-6, 4.20 ERA) in this matchup and gain an early lead for Mize. 

Trea Turner OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+120)

Phillies shortstop Trea Turner is hitting .300 in the 2025 season, and he has a great matchup against Blue Jays righty Chris Bassitt on Thursday.

In his career against Bassitt, Turner is hitting .444 with one double in nine at-bats, and he’s already picked up 19 extra-base hits in the 2025 campaign. 

Bassitt has a 1.36 WHIP in the 2025 season, allowing seven or more hits in six of his last eight outings. If Bassitt struggles with baserunners again in this game, Turner is a solid bet to hit this plus-money prop.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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