Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Predictions for Paul Skenes, Carlos Carrasco and More)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the MLB action on April 14, including a pick for Paul Skenes.

Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes is a solid prop target on Monday. / David Dermer-Imagn Images

One of the best ways to bet on Major League Baseball is in the prop market, and Monday’s action has a plethora of stars that will take the field as 10 new series start. 

Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes is on the bump on Monday, and he’s one of several players that bettors can target in the prop market.

As we get close to the first month of MLB action being complete, there is a lot more data – and some interesting trends – that we can look at to make these daily prop picks.

On Monday, I’m targeting a trio of pitchers, including Skenes and New York Yankees veteran Carlos Carrasco in the prop market. 

Here’s a complete breakdown of each of these player props for April 14. 

Best MLB Prop Bets for Monday, April 14 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Carlos Carrasco OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+100)
• Paul Skenes UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (-160)
• Antonio Senzatela OVER 5.5 Hits Allowed (+100)

Carlos Carrasco OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+100)

Carrasco has struggled mightily in the 2025 season, allowing 16 hits, 10 earned runs and four home runs across just three starts. He’s given up at least three runs in each of his outings, so it’s surprising to see him set at even money to do that again on Monday. 

The main reason may be Kansas City’s struggles on offense, it ranks just 27th in OPS and 25th in runs scored in 2025, but Carrasco has posted an ERA of 6.80, 5.64 and now 7.71 in each of his last three seasons. He’s simply not the same pitcher he used to be.

Unless the Yankees have an even quicker hook than usual with the veteran, he’s likely to give up a few runs on Monday night. 

Paul Skenes UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (-160)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why I’m fading Skenes in this game:

This season, Paul Skenes has made three starts, striking out seven, six and seven batters in those outings.

However, he’s set at 7.5 K’s against the Washington Nationals on Monday, who have actually done a great job at avoiding K’s in the 2025 season. Washington is averaging just 8.53 strikeouts per game – 15th in MLB – meaning Skenes would have to nearly reach the team’s season average just to clear this prop.

Skenes has thrown over 90 pitches in each of his outings, getting through 5.1, 7.0 and 6.0 innings in those starts. While he’s one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball, this number is a little high, as evidenced by the odds for him to go UNDER. 

Skenes is also in just the 69th percentile in chase percentage and the 63rd percentile in whiff percentage this season. With those numbers a little lower than some of his other amazing stats, I’ll fade him in this market on Monday. 

Antonio Senzatela OVER 5.5 Hits Allowed (+100)

There hasn’t been an easier prop to bet this season than fading Colorado Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela.

The right-hander has given up 27 hits in 14.0 innings of work, allowing at least eight hits in each of his starts. After not allowing a single earned run in his first two outings, Senzatela gave up nine runs (eight earned) in his last appearance. 

Even though he’s only pitched into the sixth inning once this season, Senzatela is allowing baserunner after baserunner for Colorado, and things won’t get any easier for him against a Los 

Angeles Dodgers team that is No. 9 in MLB in OPS this season.

Senzatela ranks in the ninth percentile amongst MLB pitchers in expected batting average against this season.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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