Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Predictions for Matt McLain, Kristian Campbell and Rockies Starter)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the MLB action on Thursday, including a prop for Kristian Campbell.

Boston Red Sox second baseman Kristian Campbell is a great prop target tonight. / Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

Looking to bet on some Major League Baseball prop bets on Thursday?

There are only five games in action on April 3 – a major travel day for MLB teams – but there are still several plays that I’m eyeing in the prop market.

One of the players I’m backing is Boston Red Sox rookie Kristian Campbell, as he’s gotten off to a great start in his first season in Boston.

Plus, there are a few starting pitchers to target (my favorite props) in their second outings of the 2025 campaign.

Here’s a full breakdown of the picks for Thursday’s action.  

Best MLB Prop Bets for Thursday, April 3

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Antonio Senzatela OVER 5.5 Hits Allowed (-125)
• Kristian Campbell OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+155)
• Carlos Carrasco UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (-135)
• Matt McLain to Hit a Home Run (+550)

Antonio Senzatela OVER 5.5 Hits Allowed (-125)

Colorado Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela allowed nine hits in just 4.1 innings of work in his first start of the season, and he’s struggled keeping hitters off the basepaths for several seasons.

Senzatela has allowed over 10 hits per nine innings in four of his last six seasons, and he seems to be on his way there in the 2025 season as well. This is a tough matchup for him against the Philadelphia Phillies, who are No. 1 in MLB in batting average and No. 2 in OPS so far this season.

I’ll gladly fade the Rockies starter if the team lets him work close to five innings again on Thursday. 

Kristian Campbell OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+155)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why Kristian Campbell is a great prop target against Baltimore: 

Red Sox rookie infielder Kristian Campbell is off to a great start to his MLB career, and the franchise has already awarded him with an eight-year contract extension. 

Campbell is hitting .400/.500/.750 through his first six games, putting together three multi-hit games in the process.

The rookie has also hit for some power, slugging one homer and four doubles so far in 2025. That puts him in a great spot to clear hit total bases prop on Thursday, as he’s set at plus money (+155) to pick up two total bases.

Campbell has at least two total bases in four games already this season. 

Carlos Carrasco UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (-135)

Continuing with a play from Walk-Off Wagers, I’m fading New York Yankees veteran starter Carlos Carrasco tonight: 

New York Yankees righty Carlos Carrasco did not have an inspiring debut with the franchise, tossing two innings of five-hit, three-run ball in a win over the Milwaukee Brewers.

Now, Carrasco takes the mound against a tough Arizona Diamondbacks lineup that doesn’t strike out much this season. The D-Backs are averaging just 6.83 strikeouts per game – the third-fewest in MLB.

Carrasco did pick up two K’s in his two innings of work in his season debut, but it’s pretty clear the Yankees won’t have a long leash for the veteran right-hander. That, coupled with the fact that Arizona doesn’t strike out much, makes him extremely tough to trust in this market. 

There’s a reason oddsmakers are setting Carrasco at plus money to record four or more K’s on Thursday. 

Matt McLain to Hit a Home Run (+550)

This is a bit of a longshot bet, but Cincinnati Reds infielder Matt McLain already has three homers so far in the 2025 season.

Now, he gets to face Milwaukee Brewers lefty Nestor Cortes, who allowed five homers in two innings of work in his season debut against the New York Yankees. 

Cortes struggled with the long ball last season as well, giving up 24 homers in 31 outings. He’s certainly a tough player to trust, the Brewers have a 7.81 ERA – the worst in MLB – as a team this season.

McLain has two homers against right-handed pitching and one against left-handed pitching this season, although he’s only had four at-bats against lefties so far.

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