Best NBA Prop Bets Today (Predictions for Donovan Mitchell, Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the NBA action on Sunday, May 11, including a pick for Nikola Jokic.

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is an interesting player to fade in the prop market in Game 4. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Looking to get into some NBA player prop action on Sunday?

There are two crucial Game 4 matchups for the top seeds in each conference, as both the Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers are down 2-1 entering Sunday’s matchups on the road. 

With a loss for either squad they’d face a major uphill battle to advance to the conference finals. However, oddsmakers have set both teams as favorites on Sunday in their matchups. While I’m not totally sold on either side, I do like a bunch of player props on Sunday, including picks for Nikola Jokic and Donovan Mitchell – two of the league’s top players in this postseason.

Here’s a full breakdown of those picks – and a pick for the league’s best role player (in my opinion) – on Sunday. 

Best NBA Prop Bets for Sunday, May 11

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Donovan Mitchell OVER 30.5 Points (-115)
• Nikola Jokic UNDER 6.5 Assists (-105)
• Aaron Gordon OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-115)

Donovan Mitchell OVER 30.5 Points (-115)

Mitchell has been a problem for the Indiana Pacers in this series, as he’s scored 33 or more points for Cleveland in every game.

On top of that, Mitchell has back-to-back games with 43 or more points, willing the Cavs to a win in Game 3 on Friday night. 

This number is certainly inflated for Mitchell, but I still like it with Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and De’Andre Hunter all nursing injuries. All three players did play in Game 3, but Garland was limited (in part due to foul trouble) to less than 25 minutes.

Mitchell, meanwhile, took 29 shots and 14 free throws in Game 3 and has attempted 89 shots in three games in this series. He’s going to see another game of huge usage on Sunday, and he has become one of the better playoff scorers of his generation. 

For his career, Mitchell is averaging 28.5 points per game in the playoffs, including an impressive 31.3 per game this season. 

Nikola Jokic UNDER 6.5 Assists (-105)

It’s really hard to count out or fade Nikola Jokic in any scenario, but the Thunder have really limited the Denver Nuggets star as a passer in this series.

Jokic hasn’t picked up more than six assists in a single game against OKC, and he actually has more turnovers (21) than assists (18) overall. That’s very uncharacteristic for the three-time league MVP, but I expect more struggles to come in this department in Game 4.

OKC was fourth in the NBA in opponent assists per game in the regular season, and it appears the Thunder want to force Jokic to be a scorer, as he’s attempted 25 or more shots in two of the three games in this matchup.

Plus, Jokic has failed to pick up nine assists in five straight, dating back to Game 6 of the first round. 

Aaron Gordon OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-115)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Aaron Gordon is a solid prop target in Game 4: 

Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon is having a career year shooting the ball, knocking down 43.6 percent of his shots from beyond the arc in the regular season.

In the playoffs, Gordon has not cooled off, shooting 16-for-39 (41.0 percent) from deep. He’s also made at least two shots from beyond the arc in every game in this series, shooting 9-for-15 from deep overall.

While Gordon doesn’t take a ton of shots from deep (he’s averaging just 3.9 per game in the playoffs), he’s worth a look in this market because of how efficient he is. Plus, Oklahoma City has allowed him to get up six or more shots from deep in two of the three games in this series.

This line is a solid value in Game 4.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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