Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today for Week 10 (Take Points With Steelers on Sunday Night Football)

Iain MacMillan | Nov 9, 2025

T.J. Watt is going to play a significant role on Sunday night against the Chargers. / Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

If you haven't already, it's time to place your bets for today's NFL Week 10 action. We're officially in the second half of the season, so let's get hot with our wagers.

You can find my best bet for every game in this week's edition of the Road to 272 Bets, and you can find my top props bets in this week's Player Prop Countdown. If you want just my top three plays for today, you're in the right spot.

Best NFL Bets Today

• Giants +185 vs. Bears via Caesars
• Patriots vs. Buccaneers OVER 47.5 (-118) via FanDuel
• Steelers +3 (-115) vs. Chargers via DraftKings

Giants vs. Bears Prediction

My upset pick of the week is for the New York Giants to take down the Chicago Bears. The Bears continue to find ways to win games against bad teams, but their average scoring margin of -1.5 shows that they may not be as good as their record shows. If you're a believer in the advanced metric called DVOA, you'd be interested to find out that these two teams rank right next to each other at 22nd and 23rd.

At the end of the day, in what is set as a coin flip game, I have more faith in Jaxson Dart, who has shown all the signs of being a baller that can drag his team to victories they may not deserve otherwise. I can't say the same thing about Williams. Dart ranks 16th in the NFL in Expected Points Added + Completion Percentage Over Expected, while Williams ranks just 23rd.

Pick: Giants +185

Patriots vs. Buccaneers Prediction

The New England Patriots continue to look like one of the best OVER teams in the NFL. They're 11th in the league in offensive DVOA but 25th in defensive DVOA. Their offense is also seventh in the league in EPA per play, and Drake Maye ranks second amongst all starting quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite.

The Buccaneers' offense hasn't been as good as they were at the start of the year, but a lot of that has been due to injuries. Now, coming off their BYE week, they may get a few players back this week, and even if they don't, Baker Mayfield will find a way to move the ball against this New England defense.

Give me the OVER in this interconference matchup.

Pick: OVER 47.5 (-118)

Steelers vs. Chargers Prediction

The Los Angeles Chargers have a real problem ahead of them with Joe Alt joining Rashawn Slater on the IR. Now, they're without their two starting offensive tackles, which is terrible news for the team, which is already allowing the highest pressure rate per dropback at 26.5%. Now, they have to take on one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. The Steelers, spearheaded by T.J. Watt, have a pressure rate of 22.7% while sporting the third most sacks in the league this season with 27.

If the Steelers can create pressure on Justin Herbert, which all signs point to them being able to do so, this game is going to be a close one on Sunday Night Football.

It's also worth noting that the Chargers' defense has regressed ever since the strong start to the season. They rank 17th in defensive DVOA while allowing 5.2 yards per play.

Pick: Steelers +3 (-115)

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!