Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today for Week 12 (Bet Rams to Crush Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football)

Iain MacMillan | Nov 23, 2025

The Rams are home favorites against the Buccaneers in the Week 12 edition of Sunday Night Football. / Douglas DeFelice-Imagn Images

It's time to put on a cup of coffee, find a comfortable spot on the couch, and get in your bets for today's NFL action. We have a fun day ahead that includes a few pivotal matchups with postseason implications. In this article, I'm going to give you three of my favorite bets, including a little something for everyone. I have a bet on a favorite to cover, an underdog to pull off an upset, and a bet on an over in a game that promises fireworks.

NFL Best Bets Today for Week 12

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

• Colts vs. Chiefs OVER 49.5 (-110)
• Steelers +120 vs. Bears
• Rams -7 (-105) vs. Buccaneers

Colts vs. Chiefs Prediction

The Chiefs have been an extremely confusing team this season. Despite far better metrics than they had last season, they simply can't find ways to win games, something they did weekly in 2024. With that in mind, I'm going to opt out of betting on a side in this intriguing matchup and instead bet the OVER. The reason for the Colts' success this season has been their offense, ranking first in DVOA, first in EPA per play, and second in success rate. The Chiefs' offense has also been strong this season, ranking third, third, and fourth in the aforementioned metrics. That's enough for me to bet the OVER on a total that remains in the 40s for the time being.

Pick: OVER 49.5 (-110)

Steelers vs. Bears Prediction

In this week's edition of the SI Upset Roundtable, I wrote about why I'm backing the Steelers to pull off the upset in Chicago:

I'm ready to claim the Chicago Bears are the most fraudulent team in the NFL. Sure, they may be 7-3 and in first place in the NFC North, but they still rank 23rd in Net Yards per Play (-0.4), 25th in overall DVOA, and 25th in opponent success rate. They've also had the third-easiest schedule in the league so far. That leads me to believe they're now overvalued in the betting market, which means now is the time to fade them and sell your stock in the Bears.

The Steelers are far from a perfect team, but their 14th ranking in DVOA and 18th ranking in Net Yards per Play (-0.2) tells me that in some metrics, they're a better team than the Bears, which means I'll take a shot on them winning this game outright.

Pick: Steelers +120

Buccaneers vs. Rams Prediction

In this week's Road to 272 Bets, I wrote about why I'm backing the Rams to win and cover on Sunday night:

There's a strong argument to be made that the Rams are the best team in the NFL. They're the only team in the league that ranks inside the top six in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play, and they also rank second in total DVOA. Now, they face a Buccaneers team that has been reeling. The Bucs rank 22nd in Net Yards per Play and 12th in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play. They're also 13th in total DVOA. To make matters worse, they're 22nd in opponent dropback success rate, which could lead to a huge performance for the MVP favorite, Matthew Stafford.

This is a matchup between a team you should invest in and a team you should sell some stock in. Give me the Rams to cover the 6.5-point spread as favorites.

Pick: Rams -7 (-105)

---

As a new BetMGM user, you can now claim up to $1,500 in bonus bets when you create an account using BetMGM bonus code SI1500, deposit at least $10, and place a real money wager. If you lose your bet, BetMGM will return your entire stake as bonus bets, up to $1,500. 

Are you in MI, NJ, PA, or WV? If so, you can bet $10 and receive $150 in bonus bets from BetMGM if you win.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!