NFL Upset Predictions and Picks for Week 12 (Will Bears Luck Run Out vs. Steelers?)

Iain MacMillan | Nov 20, 2025

The Steelers are road underdogs against the Bears in NFL Week 12 action. / Williams: Ian Maule/Getty Images, Rodgers: Mark Alberti/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Upsets were few and far between during last week's NFL action, but the SI team cashed in on two of them in their Week 11 edition of their underdog roundtable article. Gilberto Manzano correctly predicted the Bears to take down the Vikings, and Matt Verderame cashed in on the Jaguars to upset the Chargers.

Let's move on to everyone's upset picks for the Week 12 slate.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Gilberto Manzano, NFL Staff Writer
• Matt Verderame, NFL Staff Writer
• Iain MacMillan, Senior Editor, Betting
• Peter Dewey, Associate Managing Editor

Gilberto Manzano Week 12 Upset Pick

Indianapolis Colts (+156) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

There’s enough of a sample size this season to know the Colts should be the favorite over a subpar Chiefs team. These aren’t the same ol’ Chiefs. They’re just an old team that has shown fatigue from three consecutive trips to the Super Bowl.

I’m done waiting for the Chiefs to turn on the light switch. Rashee Rice has been back for weeks, and still, the offense has been inconsistent. Even Andy Reid’s impressive record coming off a bye week didn’t help his team in Denver. Go ahead and give Kansas City the benefit of the doubt, but I’m jumping off this sinking ship.

Matt Verderame Week 12 Upset Pick

Atlanta Falcons (+110) vs. New Orleans Saints

The Falcons are likely starting Kirk Cousins over Michael Penix Jr., who is dealing with an ankle injury. Atlanta is hopefully out of the playoff picture at 3–7, but New Orleans is also playing out the string at 2–8.

The Saints are home and coming off their bye week, while the Falcons are going to be without Penix and star receiver Drake London, but they’re still the more talented team going against a rookie quarterback in Tyler Shough.

Iain MacMillan Week 12 Upset Pick

Pittsburgh Steelers (+122) vs. Chicago Bears

I'm ready to claim the Chicago Bears are the most fraudulent team in the NFL. Sure, they may be 7-3 and in first place in the NFC North, but they still rank 23rd in Net Yards per Play (-0.4), 25th in overall DVOA, and 25th in opponent success rate. They've also had the third-easiest schedule in the league so far. That leads me to believe they're now overvalued in the betting market, which means now is the time to fade them and sell your stock in the Bears.

The Steelers are far from a perfect team, but their 14th ranking in DVOA and 18th ranking in Net Yards per Play (-0.2) tells me that in some metrics, they're a better team than the Bears, which means I'll take a shot on them winning this game outright.

Peter Dewey Week 12 Upset Pick

Cleveland Browns (+176) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

These teams are both inept offenses, but there is one elite unit in this matchup.

The Cleveland defense ranks fourth in EPA/Play, fifth in yards per play, and first in EPA/Rush this season, and it may be able to hold the Raiders in check enough to get a win on the road in Week 12.

Shedeur Sanders struggled for Cleveland in his NFL debut in Week 11, but he should have a little more time to get ready to face a Raiders defense that was torched by Dallas in Week 11 and ranks 20th in EPA/Play and in the bottom 10 in points allowed this season.

Geno Smith and the Raiders have not been able to move the ball at all this season, and their terrible offensive line is not going to hold up against this Cleveland front. I expect the Browns to take away the run game early, and they may not need much from their offense to pull off an upset win.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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