SI

Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today for Week 6 (Picks for Patriots-Saints, Lions-Chiefs, and Seahawks-Jaguars)

Iain MacMillan

The Lions are road underdogs against the Chiefs in NFL Week 7.
The Lions are road underdogs against the Chiefs in NFL Week 7. / Denny Medley-Imagn Images
In this story:

We have a loaded slate of NFL games to watch and bet on today, so if you haven't already, it's time to place your bets.

If you're looking for some plays today, you've come to the right place. In this article, I'm going to break down my top three bets for Sunday's Week 7 slate. Let's dive into them.

NFL Best Bets Today for Week 7

Patriots vs. Saints Prediction

I've been on the "Spencer Rattle isn't that bad" train for the past two weeks, and the Saints quarterback continues to climb up quarterback rankings, now ranking above the likes of Bo Nix, Justin Herbert, and Jayden Daniels in EPA+CPOE (expected points added + completion percentage over expected). With that being said, I don't have much faith in the Saints' defense, so I'm going to bet the OVER in their Week 6 game against the New England Patriots.

The Patriots are built to be the perfect OVER team. The Patriots rank 10th in EPA per play but 23rd in opponent EPA per play. When looking at the advanced metric called DVOA, these two defenses rank 27th and 29th. I'm surprised the total is set in the mid-40s, so give me the OVER.

Pick: OVER 46 (-109)

Seahawks vs. Jaguars Prediction

I'm very high on the Seattle Seahawks, despite their Week 5 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The advanced metrics love this team, as they rank second in the league in DVOA, coming in at third in offensive DVOA, eighth in defensive DVOA, and first in special teams DVOA. Sam Darnold has also been fantastic to start the season, leading the league in adjusted EPA per play and Completion Percentage Over Expected.

The Jaguars' defense has been solid to start their season, but their offense has been less than stellar, and Trevor Lawrence's play has been masked by their winning record. I'm shocked the Seahawks are listed at a pick'em price. I think the Jaguars are completely outclassed in this game.

Pick: Seahawks -104

Lions vs. Chiefs

I was ready to bet against the Lions this week based on their recent competition, but DVOA, which adjusts for strength of opponent, has the Lions ranked as the No. 1-ranked team in the league. Not only do they rank in the top four on both offense and defense, but they're also fourth in special teams DVOA. Their defense has been far better than people give them credit for, ranking sixth in opponent EPA and third in opponent success rate.

The Chiefs' win against the Ravens doesn't look quite as good as it did a couple of weeks ago. I'm not quite sold on this team belonging in the elite tier in the NFL this season, so I'll back the Lions in this spot.

Pick: Lions +120

With the latest FanDuel promo code new-user offer, you can place a $5 wager and win $300 in bonus bets. Create your new FanDuel account today to lock in this impressive welcome offer from one of the top sportsbooks in the nation.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

Published
Iain MacMillan
IAIN MACMILLAN

Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.

Home/Betting