Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Chiefs vs. Eagles in Super Bowl 59)

Iain MacMillan | Feb 16, 2025

The Chiefs are favored to the Eagles in Super Bowl 59. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Super Bowl Sunday is finally here!

272 regular season and 12 playoff games have led us to a Super Bowl rematch from two years ago between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. Will the Chiefs be the first team to achieve the Super Bowl three-peat? Will the Eagles avenge their Super Bowl 57 loss? We'll find out the answers to those questions by the end of the day.

If you haven't already placed your bets for tonight's game and you're looking to do so now, I'm here to help you out. In this article, I'm going to break down both my pick to win this game and whether or not the total will go over or under.

Super Bowl Best Bets Today

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

• Chiefs -1.5 (-105) vs. Eagles
• UNDER 48.5 (-105)

Chiefs vs. Eagles Prediction

If you want to handicap this game from a pure analytics perspective, the Eagles are going to be the side you'll land on. They outrank the Chiefs in almost every single category on both sides of the ball except for success rate, third down conversion rate, and sack percentage.

With that being said, I'm going to back Kansas City to complete the three-peat. This is the same story we've seen time and time again. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid may be the best coach-quarterback duo of all time in clutch situations. When they need a big play, they find a way to get it done. Whether it's in the AFC Playoffs or the Super Bowl, they have proven that betting against them is a losing strategy in big games.

Mahomes has recorded an EPA per Play of 0.5 or better in seven playoff starts in his career. That's more than double any other quarterback in NFL history, including Tom Brady, who only has three. That's enough to convince me to have faith in the Chiefs to pull this thing off.

Pick: Chiefs -1.5 (-105)

Chiefs vs. Eagles OVER/UNDER Prediction

Despite the last two Chiefs Super Bowl wins hitting the OVER, I'm going to go against the grain and bet the UNDER.

I would argue that the strength of both teams is their defenses. Remember, the Chiefs hadn't scored over 30 points in a game this season until the AFC Championship against the Bills. Their success this year has largely been due to Steve Spagnuolo's defense and Patrick Mahomes making big plays when he needs to.

Then there's the Eagles defense, which can be argued to be the best in the league, ranking third in opponent EPA per play and first in opponent success rate.

If we stick to the obvious, the Eagles allowed the fewest points per game at 17.9 while the Chiefs allowed the fourth-fewest points at 19.4. To me, that doesn't sound like a recipe for an offensive shootout of a game.

Pick: UNDER 48.5 (-105)

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