Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Commanders vs. Chiefs on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 8)

Breaking down the best picks and prediction for the Monday Night Football matchup between the Washington Commanders and Kansas City Chiefs.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is a great prop target in Week 8. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The Kansas City Chiefs have won four of their last five games and are now favored to win the Super Bowl in the 2025 season heading into their Week 8 matchup with the Washington Commanders.

After making the NFC title game last season, Washington has taken a step back in the 2025 campaign, falling to 3-4 after back-to-back losses to the Chicago Bears and Dallas Cowboys.

To make matters worse, Jayden Daniels injured his hamstring in the loss to the Cowboys and has been ruled out for Monday night’s matchup.

That has shifted the line in this game by three points, as the Chiefs opened as 9.5-point favorites and are now favored by 12.5. 

Patrick Mahomes has been terrific over the last four games, and he’s led the Chiefs to 28 or more points in each of those matchups, pushing him to the favorite in the odds to win the MVP.

Can Kansas City cover the spread as a massive favorite at home? It is coming off a 31-0 win against Las Vegas as an 11.5-point favorite. 

All week long, the SI Betting team has been making picks for this matchup, and I’ve curated some of our favorites all in one spot for Monday’s showdown.

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Commanders vs. Chiefs

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Washington Commanders-Kansas City Chiefs OVER 46.5 (-110) – Iain MacMillan
• Rashee Rice OVER 5.5 Receptions (-156) – Peter Dewey
• Zach Ertz Anytime TD (+245) – Peter Dewey
• Patrick Mahomes 3+ Passing Touchdowns (+133) – Peter Dewey

Washington Commanders-Kansas City Chiefs OVER 46.5 (-110) – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared in his Road to 272 column – where he bets every game, every week – why he’s taking the OVER on Monday night: 

With Jayden Daniels out, I'm going to pass on betting on the side in this Monday Night Football showdown and bet on the OVER instead. This year's version of the Chiefs is more similar to the ones we saw in the early years of Patrick Mahomes' career. The offense has been the better unit, which is different from the defensive-minded teams of the past few years.

The Chiefs are third in the NFL in EPA per play and second in offensive DVOA. Meanwhile, their defense ranks worse in every metric compared to the past few seasons.

Rashee Rice OVER 5.5 Receptions (-156) – Peter Dewey

Rashee Rice returned to action in Week 7, promptly getting targeted 10 times by Patrick Mahomes. He’s worth a look on Monday night to keep his strong start to 2025 going:

Rice made his season debut in Week 7, and he didn’t disappoint. 

The Chiefs targeted their star receiver 10 times in the 33 snaps that he played in, and he finished with seven catches for 42 yards and two touchdowns.

Now, Rice is set at just 5.5 receptions in Week 8 against a Washington defense that is 24th in the NFL in EPA/Pass.

Rice was targeted on nearly a third of his snaps, and he played less than 45 percent of Kansas  City’s offensive plays in Week 7. That number should only increase as the season goes on, and I’d expect him to remain the No. 1 target for Patrick Mahomes going forward.

Zach Ertz Anytime TD (+245) – Peter Dewey

Commanders tight end Zach Ertz could be undervalued in this market since he has found  the end zone in more than half of his games in 2025: 

Through seven games in the 2025 season, Commanders tight end Zach Ertz has scored four touchdowns, turning three of his four red zone targets into scores.

The Commanders have been banged up at receiver all season long, and I expect Ertz to operate as a safety blanket for Marcus Mariota in his third start of the season. Mariota targeted Ertz seven times in two games in his starts earlier this season.

After back-to-back games where he found the end zone, Ertz is a great look at +245 on Monday night. 

Patrick Mahomes 3+ Passing Touchdowns (+133) – Peter Dewey

The MVP favorite, Patrick Mahomes may have a field day against a Washington defense that is just 24th in the NFL in EPA/Pass this season: 

Mahomes has been on fire as of late, throwing 11 touchdowns over the last four weeks, putting up at least three scores in three of those games.

Now, he takes on a Washington team that has given up 12 passing touchdowns this season, including a three-score game to Dak Prescott in a blowout loss in Week 7. 

Mahomes is the MVP favorite, and he finally has all his weapons (Rice, Worthy, etc.) healthy and in the lineup. That has led to the Chiefs putting up 28 or more points in four games in a row, making Mahomes a great target in this plus-money prop.

Washington is just 24th in EPA/Pass, 28th in passing yards allowed and 23rd in passing touchdowns allowed this season. Mahomes should have a field day on Monday night.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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